In June, the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket recorded a trading volume of $109.9 million, breaking the $100 million mark for the first time. 

Related: Donald Trump Won’t 'Make Bitcoin Great Again'

Source: Dune Analytics

Part of this boom can be attributed to the excitement surrounding the UEFA European Football Championship 2024 markets, which also saw significant trading volumes on Polymarket. However, the lion's share goes to the whopping $203.3 million in bets on the "Presidential Election Winner 2024," made up of individual "Yes" or "No" bets across 17 prediction markets.

Former President Donald Trump is currently the favorite, with a 62% chance of winning the U.S. election, attracting a total of $24.7 million in bets for and against him.

Does this reflect the real political pre-election sentiment? Yuga Cohler, a lead engineer at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, thinks decentralized prediction markets cut through misleading narratives to reveal the unvarnished truth.

"Prediction markets are a freedom-preserving technology that moves society forward," Cohler said in a post on X on June 30.

Current President Joe Biden is in second place with $23.9 million in bets on whether he will get another term. However, his chances have decreased from 34% to 21% following his uninspiring performance in the first presidential debate on June 28.

Speculators have significantly slashed Biden's odds of winning 

Beyond Polymarket, data from the prediction market platform PredictIt showed a sharp rise in Trump's odds of winning the presidential election, according to bettors. Meanwhile, Biden's odds took a nosedive, likely due to observers noting his stumbling over some answers and being unable to finish certain sentences during the debates.

Trump's share prices on the platform shot up from around $0.53 to $0.63 within an hour, while Biden's plummeted from $0.48 to $0.37 in the same timeframe, widening the gap between them to 26 points.

Source: PredictIt

Millions of dollars have also been wagered on whether American rapper Kanye West and crypto-skeptic Elizabeth Warren could win the presidential election, but these markets show less than a 1% probability at this stage.

Meanwhile, odds for Democrats Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, and Michelle Obama have surged, as some political commentators ponder whether Biden should drop out of the presidential race.

Biden's debate performance led to a spike in "Yes" bets on the "Biden drops out of the presidential race" and "Biden drops out by July 4th" markets, which are now at 43% and 9% respectively. These markets have seen over $10 million in wagers.

While cryptocurrency wasn't directly mentioned in the debates, it has become a hot topic related to the election in recent weeks. Trump has actively positioned himself as a crypto-friendly candidate, declaring on June 16th that he would end "Biden's war on crypto" if elected president in November.

More Info:

The Biden administration has also recently softened its stance on virtual assets by bringing back pro-crypto advisor Carole House to the National Security Council. This indicates that Biden cannot ignore the millions of citizens and investors who want to engage with the crypto industry within America's legal framework. Regardless of who wins the election, they won't be able to ignore and stifle the multi-billion-dollar crypto industry any longer.

Disclaimer: All materials on this site are for informational purposes only. None of the material should be interpreted as investment advice. Please note that despite the nature of much of the material created and hosted on this website, HODL FM is not a financial reference resource and the opinions of authors and other contributors are their own and should not be taken as financial advice. If you require advice of this sort, HODL FM strongly recommends contacting a qualified industry professional.