Gemini Space Station Inc., the cryptocurrency exchange founded by twin billionaires Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, is gearing up to enter the booming market for regulated prediction contracts, according to a Bloomberg report citing people familiar with the matter. The move would expand Gemini’s offerings beyond traditional crypto trading and position it among a growing number of financial and crypto firms looking to bring event-based trading into the mainstream.
Gemini’s next strategic frontier
According to sources, Gemini has discussed launching prediction market products as soon as possible, although the timeline depends on regulatory approval. The company filed in May 2025 with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate a designated contract market, essentially a derivatives exchange, that would enable users to trade contracts tied to real-world events. Some within the company have referred to the new platform as Gemini Titan, which would serve as the venue for listing such prediction contracts.
The proposed marketplace would allow participants to speculate or hedge on outcomes of political elections, economic forecasts, sports results, and other measurable real‑world events. However, progress is reportedly slowed by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown that has delayed several regulatory reviews. The CFTC, which oversees derivatives markets, declined to comment on the pending application.
If approved, Gemini’s plan would place it in direct competition with Kalshi, the leading U.S. CFTC‑regulated prediction market platform, and Polymarket, which is preparing to re‑enter the U.S. market. Both firms have seen trading volumes surge as the 2024 election season drives renewed interest in event‑based markets. Robinhood, meanwhile, has partnered with Kalshi to offer similar event contracts to retail users, choosing not to pursue its own exchange license.
Building a compliant foundation
Gemini’s decision to go through formal CFTC channels marks an effort to differentiate itself from unlicensed or offshore operators. By applying for a designated contract market license, the firm signals its intent to bring prediction markets into a fully regulated environment governed by the same rules as other derivatives products.
Prediction markets have often faced scrutiny from regulators concerned about their similarity to gambling. In recent years, however, the CFTC has begun to clarify when event‑based contracts may qualify as legitimate derivatives rather than wagers. Gemini’s initiative reflects this shift, aiming to integrate event contracts into the regulated financial system and extend access to institutional and retail traders seeking exposure to political or macroeconomic outcomes.
If granted approval, Gemini Titan could become one of the first federally regulated U.S. venues offering such products. Market participants expect it could attract traders analyzing data and sentiment to forecast probabilities of events, providing transparency and standardization unavailable on informal betting platforms.
Competition and market momentum
The wider prediction market sector is expanding at record speed. Kalshi’s trading volumes recently exceeded $1.2 billion per week, while Polymarket also surpassed the billion‑dollar mark. Institutional money is flowing in fast — Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, reportedly invested $2 billion in Polymarket at a $9 billion valuation. Likewise, CME Group, Coinbase Global, and even platforms like DraftKings and MetaMask are exploring or integrating similar contract models.
Gemini’s entry comes just months after its initial public offering in September, during which it announced plans to launch event contracts spanning financial, political, and sports outcomes. The IPO raised roughly $433 million at a $4.4 billion valuation. Despite that, shares have fallen 40% since debuting, and Gemini continues to operate at a loss, handling only a small portion of U.S. crypto trading volume. The company is set to report its first earnings as a public firm on November 10.
Navigating regulatory uncertainty
Analysts believe that prediction markets could provide Gemini with a much‑needed growth avenue beyond crypto. A recent Needham report described event contracts as an “attractive” diversification strategy for the company. Yet, challenges remain. While the CFTC has permitted Kalshi to expand into new market categories, state gaming regulators, traditionally responsible for overseeing sports wagering, have challenged the agency’s authority in court. These disputes have introduced further uncertainty into the federal oversight of event-based products.
Still, the appetite for regulated prediction markets shows no signs of slowing. Proponents argue that by offering a compliant framework for trading on real-world outcomes, platforms like Gemini Titan could transform how investors express economic views and manage event risk. As major financial institutions and crypto firms rush to claim a share of this rapidly evolving market, Gemini’s move underscores how the boundaries between traditional finance, crypto innovation, and predictive analytics are becoming increasingly blurred.
Gunel Ismayilova
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