So, who’s taking the White House in 2028? Well, the Polymarket odds seem to be stacking up against Donald Trump, with bettors giving his third-term bid just a 4% chance. Yeah, you read that right, a 4% chance for the guy selling “Trump 2028” caps as if he’s already got the election in the bag. While the current president is teasing a third term and even claiming he’s “not joking” about it, the U.S. Constitution might have a few things to say about that.
Even with all the cap-selling and grand plans, it looks like Trump’s chances are pretty slim. According to current betting odds, he’s trailing far behind other contenders. Still, don’t count him out completely. He’s managed to pull in a hefty $148,028 in betting volume, second only to Vance. Seems like the Trump train still has a few die-hard passengers.
Vance's Rise
Now, if you’re betting on someone other than Trump, you might want to put your money on J.D. Vance. This 40-year-old Vice President has surged ahead, claiming 28% odds to take over after Trump steps down. He’s leading the pack with a solid $142,172 in betting volume. But here’s the kicker: Vance’s odds have dipped from a high of 51% when the market first opened. Still, he’s holding strong in the 25% to 28% range. Looks like the young gun is in it for the long haul.
The Other Players in the 2028 Race
But Vance isn’t the only one in the game. California Governor Gavin Newsom is making waves with 14% odds, making him the second most likely Democratic contender after Trump. Not far behind is the fiery Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, with 11% of bettors backing her to make a run for the top office.
On the Republican side, some familiar names are popping up, like former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump Jr. Heck, even Elon Musk, once a staunch Trump supporter, is getting some attention. The plot thickens, folks.
Oh, and in a surprising twist, Kamala Harris, former Vice President and 2024 presidential hopeful, has joined the list. With a respectable $117,168 in betting volume, Harris is holding steady with the same 3% odds. It seems like the 2028 race might be a lot more crowded than anyone expected.
While the odds aren’t exactly in Trump’s favor, the political landscape could shift drastically over the next few years. With bettors placing big money on various figures, it’s clear the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election is already shaping up to be a wild ride.
Tanya Petrusenko
Disclaimer: All materials on this site are for informational purposes only. None of the material should be interpreted as investment advice. Please note that despite the nature of much of the material created and hosted on this website, HODL FM is not a financial reference resource, and the opinions of authors and other contributors are their own and should not be taken as financial advice. If you require advice. HODL FM strongly recommends contacting a qualified industry professional.
