The United States presidential election is undoubtedly one of the biggest events in the modern world. One might even call it the Superbowl of presidential elections. Like the Superbowl or any other sporting event, people will come out to place bets on their favorite team. Present results from the prediction market platform Polymarket have shown that most people are now “Team Trump,” or are they?
Just last week, Kamala Harris was in the lead as the most likely candidate to win the upcoming US presidential election, steadily maintaining a slight edge over Trump. However, as this week began, Donald Trump’s odds of winning the election got a significant boost, and now he is edging out Harris as the market’s favorite by 54% to 45.4%.
Trump's lead is up to 8.6% in the odds today.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 7, 2024
He's nearing his biggest lead since Kamala Harris entered the race. pic.twitter.com/PpJtjyxnZ0
As they say, “the numbers don’t lie,” but the results and some facts from the aftermath of the new results have led many to ask if those honest numbers could have been manipulated. The major reason for this question of manipulation is centered on a user known as “Fredi9999,” who has become Polymarket’s largest holder of Trump shares after accumulating over 7.8 million.
Related news: Trump Catching Up To Harris On Polymarket $1 Billion Betting
One thing specifically conspicuous about Fredi9999’s methodical strategy is that a large percentage of his shares were for the battleground state of Pennsylvania. This has led many to speculate that the user could be somehow connected to Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of X. The connection was made due to the timing of large bets coinciding with pro-Trump statements made by Musk on his social media accounts.
Biggest current user on Polymarket is "Fredi9999" -- who is himself a curiosity.
— Domer (@Domahhhh) October 7, 2024
He is by far the largest holder of Trump shares, checking in at 7.2 million shares and counting.
The user has a total of $6.4 million in positions, all of them on Trump. He also has a lot of cash… pic.twitter.com/VQFdauqKRC
As of this writing, there’s no evidence to support this theory, but many observers have argued that it makes sense, given Fredi9999’s substantial bankroll and massive interest in Trump, which are characteristics of the world’s richest man, Elon Musk.
One of the experts who have shared their thoughts on the matter is John Stefanidis. In sharing his opinion, the CEO and co-founder of the predictions and wagering platform Real World Gaming mentioned that it would be hard to distinguish whether someone is trying to manipulate the market’s perception in Trump’s favor or they just really like the man.
However, he reassuringly mentioned that even if it was a market manipulation tactic, these things tend to even out over time, and soon enough, the true market sentiment will prevail.
Polymarket's platform functions as a prediction market. The price of a share, fluctuating between $0 and $1, represents the likelihood of a specific event occurring. To illustrate, if a share for a particular candidate to win is priced at 80 cents, the market estimates their chances of victory at 80%.
Investors can purchase shares based on the outcome they believe is the most likely. Once the event occurs, the shares associated with the actual outcome become worth $1. Lower odds are priced lower, meaning cheaper shares.
Dayo Paul
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