Time flies by — hours turn into hours, days into days, and weeks into weeks. While the world is full of constants, one thing you can always count on is your Friday favorite digest. Don’t worry if you haven’t checked the news all week; all the highlights are right here!
Polymarket Betting Big on the Next President
Just like poker players eagerly awaiting the next hand, people can't resist the thrill of betting on the future — especially when it comes to high-stakes events like the U.S. presidential race. In recent weeks, Polymarket, the crypto prediction platform, has seen a surge in traffic and popularity, with political showdowns acting as the catalyst for this boom.
In July, the site recorded a staggering $387 million in trading volume, fueled by events like the assassination attempt on Trump and speculation about President Joe Biden dropping out of the race. This is more than triple the volume from June. At the moment, the bet on the next U.S. president is the biggest pool on the site, with over $541 million on the line.
Harris vs. Trump on Polymarket
Prediction markets like Polymarket are often touted as reliable sources of probabilities and predictors of market sentiment, standing in contrast to traditional opinion polls.
Harris's odds on the site have steadily climbed since July 21, when Biden dropped out of the race. Back then, her odds were 30% compared to Trump’s 64%. Now, Vice President Kamala Harris has caught up to former President Donald Trump, with both standing at 49% among players eager to predict the next occupant of the White House.
Kamala Harris is now tied with Trump. pic.twitter.com/04dQx3kWBl
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) August 7, 2024
But don't be tempted to take these predictions as gospel. Polymarket’s odds often react swiftly to breaking news, yet the choice of Harris over Shapiro on Tuesday shows that even prediction markets can miss the mark.
Grassroots Crypto Movement Backs Kamala Harris
U.S. politics, especially the new candidate Kamala Harris, is a hot topic right now, so please forgive us for dedicating not one, but two sections of our digest to the events surrounding this theme.
Dayo Paul
Recently, a group called Crypto4Harris popped up in the wilds of crypto Twitter. They describe themselves as "A grassroots network of crypto advocates organizing, fundraising, and developing a nuanced crypto-policy approach for the Harris For President campaign." Their mission is to rally digital asset enthusiasts around the Democratic presidential candidate for the 2024 election.
The core organizers of Crypto4Harris are volunteers who work full-time in the crypto industry. Their goal is to show people that cryptocurrency isn't a partisan issue and that a Harris administration won’t be just a continuation of Biden’s.
Backers and Critics Face Off
A grassroots network of crypto supporters is planning a town hall event via Zoom next week. According to the event description, attendees will have the chance to chat with industry leaders, policy experts, and crypto enthusiasts backing Harris’s bid for the White House
Among the “heavyweights” expected to attend is billionaire Mark Cuban, as reported by the Crypto4Harris account on X.
Join our virtual Town Hall next Wednesday to hear from elected officials, policy leaders, and industry heavyweights (including @mcuban) on our plans to support the campaign and ways you can get involved:
— Crypto4Harris (@Crypto4Harris) August 6, 2024
https://t.co/PYj41jHhc9
But not everyone is on board with Crypto4Harris. Some critics have been less than enthusiastic — one Twitter user even compared the group to lobsters organizing a water-boiling event.
this is like lobsters building a movement for boiling water
— Sniff (@snifftoken) August 6, 2024
On a more notable front, Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets at VanEck, didn't hold back his thoughts:
“You're happy to see an effort from an account with 900 followers and no specifics? It's pathetic”
Whether the Harris camp will truly turn a new page in crypto remains to be seen. However, a glimmer of hope has emerged with the addition of David Plouffe, a former member of Binance’s global advisory board, who has been hired by Harris as a senior advisor.
Kataryna Habeliia
Brazil Leads with First Solana ETF Launch
Peering out from under the US cryptocurrency news dome, we came across an undeniable sign of crypto adoption worldwide. This milestone marks a major advancement in investment opportunities within the crypto market.
The Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) has approved the launch of the world's first spot Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF). This financial product is still in its pre-operational stage, awaiting final approval from Brazil's main stock exchange, B3.
Crypto Evolution
In recent years, Brazil has shown a strong appetite for innovative financial products. B3 has played a key role in embracing crypto trends, launching several ETFs, including Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF, between 2021 and 2022. Most recently, in March 2024, it began offering BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF.
Theodoro Fleury, Chief Investment Officer of QR Asset, couldn't hide his excitement about the introduction of the new ETF.
“This ETF reaffirms our commitment to offering quality and diversification to Brazilian investors. We are proud to be global pioneers in this segment, further cementing Brazil’s position as a leading market for regulated crypto asset investments,” Fleury said.
Despite this landmark event, Solana's price hasn't seen significant movement. However, the initiative marks an important milestone in integrating altcoins into mainstream financial systems. Notably, this ETF is the first financial product based on Solana to launch in Brazil.
And what about the U.S., you might ask? A recent development in the SEC’s lawsuit against Binance has excluded Solana and some other altcoins from being classified as securities. With SOL no longer considered a security, SOL ETFs could be regulated under a “commodity model,” similar to the one already applied to BTC and ETH.
Cunning Whales Accumulated Bitcoin During the Latest Dip
As the saying goes, one man’s loss is another man’s gain, and the same is true for financial markets. While some lost from the price drop, others saw it as a golden opportunity to buy at a discount. In this case, Bitcoin whales got rich on the market downturn on August 5 and 6 by 23 billion dollars.
According to the on-chain analytics platform Santiment, wallets holding between 10 and 1,000 BTC swiftly accumulated during the price dip, when the leading crypto asset slipped below $50,000.
🐳 August 5th and 6th saw the highest level of Bitcoin whale transactions since the first week of April. According to the total holdings of wallets with 10 to 1,000 BTC, they rapidly accumulated on the price dip that saw crypto's top asset fall below $50K. pic.twitter.com/wLG33tIV2k
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) August 7, 2024
Bitcoin whale transactions hit their highest level since April during the massive crypto market crash on August 5th and 6th. On these two dates, there were 28,319 BTC transactions worth over $100,000 and 5,738 transactions worth over $1 million as crypto prices plummeted.
In the past 30 days, Bitcoin whales have bought up nearly $23 billion worth of the asset, with activity peaking during the market crash.
“This is clear accumulation,” said CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju, who noted that over 400,000 BTC had moved to long-term holder addresses since early July.
He also mentioned that whales who had held BTC for more than three years sold their assets to new whales between March and June, but added,
“There is currently no significant selling pressure from old whales.”
Remember how we said that where there’s a dip, there’s growth on the other side? Well, that growth doesn’t apply to U.S. Bitcoin ETF investors, who faced a combined outflow of $554 million between August 2nd and 6th.
Well, how are we worse than whales? We’re predicting a week of riches and joy for everyone! Wait for the next issue, as always, every Friday at “as soon as the chief editor approves the article”.
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