Bitcoin has long been hailed as a beacon of financial freedom, a censorship-resistant tool empowering dissidents, journalists, and activists to escape economic repression. But a new and potentially existential risk is surfacing on the horizon: quantum computing.
According to a new report by the Human Rights Foundation (HRF), the rise of cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs) could jeopardize Bitcoin’s technical security. These machines, designed to solve certain mathematical problems exponentially faster than classical computers, may one day be able to crack the cryptography that underpins Bitcoin’s proof of ownership.
This concern intensified after Google researchers announced that a quantum algorithm performed operations 13,000 times faster than a classical supercomputer, a milestone that suggests the theoretical could soon turn practical. Experts warn that CRQCs capable of breaking elliptic curve cryptography, the mathematical foundation used by Bitcoin, could emerge within five years.
A financial lifeline under threat
Bitcoin’s decentralized network and peer-to-peer design make it a lifeline for many living under authoritarian rule. The HRF’s Financial Freedom program emphasizes how activists rely on Bitcoin to receive donations and store savings away from government control.
However, if CRQCs become operational before the Bitcoin network transitions to quantum-resistant cryptography, millions of coins could become vulnerable. Attackers armed with quantum tools could derive private keys from exposed public keys, giving them control over anyone’s funds.
According to HRF’s latest findings presented at the Presidio Bitcoin Quantum Summit, around 6.51 million BTC, worth more than $718 billion, are potentially vulnerable. Of that total, 1.72 million BTC (roughly $188 billion) are thought to be locked in early address types whose owners have lost access. Once CRQCs exist, these dormant addresses could be the first to be plundered.
“Censorship resistance is paramount,” said HRF Bitcoin Technical Lead Alex Li, who spearheaded the report’s research. Losing Bitcoin’s cryptographic integrity would mean depriving activists of their safest financial refuge.
The “burn or steal” dilemma
The report raises a controversial ethical question: Should the Bitcoin community act preemptively to “burn” vulnerable coins, permanently rendering them unspendable to prevent theft, or leave them exposed to potential quantum heists?
Supporters of the burn method argue that it would safeguard the network’s legitimacy and prevent widespread panic if attackers drain old wallets. Critics believe such interventions contradict Bitcoin’s fundamental principle of property rights and non-censorship.
At the Presidio Summit, opinions remained deeply divided. Polls showed that support for burning lost coins dropped from 45% to 38% after the debates, while the “do nothing” camp grew from 22% to 29%. Others advocated a compromise, the “Hourglass” approach, an automatic time delay on vulnerable funds to slow quantum theft, but this, too, has sparked controversy.
Two quantum attack vectors
The HRF report identifies two main threat types that quantum computers could exploit:
- Long-range attacks: These target reused or early address formats that reveal public keys, such as the pay-to-public-key (P2PK) type used in Bitcoin’s earliest days. Around a third of all Bitcoin supply, roughly 6.5 million BTC, is at risk from such attacks.
- Short-range attacks: These exploit the brief transaction window when public keys are visible but transactions are yet to be confirmed on the blockchain. During this gap, an adversary could compute the private key and redirect funds.
Both attack forms pose serious challenges, but researchers stress that upgrading Bitcoin’s core cryptography can mitigate them, if the community acts in time.
Building quantum resilience: A technical and social marathon
Transitioning Bitcoin to quantum-proof encryption is not a simple upgrade. Developers are exploring new signature schemes like lattice-based and hash-based cryptography. Lattice-based algorithms such as CRYSTALS-Dilithium and FALCON offer compact signatures but introduce untested assumptions. Hash-based options like SPHINCS+ and XMSS are more mature but vastly increase transaction data size.
The HRF report estimates that quantum-secure transactions could be 10 to 38 times larger than today’s, dramatically inflating the blockchain and reducing transaction throughput. This would reignite years-long debates about scalability and consensus within a decentralized ecosystem that famously resists change.
Furthermore, the upgrade challenge isn’t purely technical, it’s cultural. Wallet developers, miners, and everyday users will need education and new tools to transition safely. The HRF warns that unless coordinated globally, fragmented adoption could leave parts of the network vulnerable for years.
Preparing for the quantum era
Through its Bitcoin Development Fund, the HRF plans to fund research into quantum-resistant signature schemes and migration tools. The organization acknowledges that timeline uncertainty makes planning difficult, but inaction could prove devastating.
As Bitcoin core contributor Pieter Wuille noted,
“Sufficiently powerful quantum computers (and other ECDLP breaks) are hypothetical, and if they happen, there will likely be a long series of incremental breakthroughs that give us time for more fundamental solutions”.
Still, experts like Sho Sugiara of Blocq caution that “five to ten years is not a crazy number.”
In the end, Bitcoin's journey through the quantum transition will put its code and its core values of privacy, decentralisation, and freedom to the test.
Gunel Ismayilova
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