In October, Polymarket’s odds for the U.S. presidential race took a sharp swing in favor of former President Donald Trump, raising eyebrows about potential market manipulation and prompting the platform to dig deeper into the possible presence of U.S. users.

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Source: Polymarket

Polymarket soon found itself facing questions about a group of four accounts suspected of artificially pumping Trump’s odds. The combined trading volume for these accounts $28 million. The start-up told DealBook's Michael de la Merced that he doesn't believe that, and provided more information about who is behind the bets.

The company revealed that, yes, it was all down to a single individual, confirming online speculation. They identified the “whale” as a French citizen with a knack for trading and experience in financial services, who was behind the accounts — Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie — all in on a Trump win.

Polymarket even reached out to this person, who clarified that the positions reflected personal views on the 2024 U.S. presidential election outcome. The platform also reported no signs of manipulation after their investigation, adding that the trader had thoughtfully spread bets across smaller positions to avoid causing a market stir.

Critics of Polymarket and similar platforms argue that these markets lack the reliability of polls, often attracting speculative bets without substantial backing. But to be fair, Kalshi, a U.S.-only competitor, provided data supporting Polymarket’s Trump-heavy odds, suggesting Trump had a solid edge over Harris.

Supporters of prediction markets, meanwhile, argue that these platforms, with their monetary incentives, offer a more accurate snapshot of pre-election sentiment than traditional polls. But here’s the question: if the financial incentives tipped in favor of Harris instead of Trump, where would the crypto community’s bets land?

Bets vs. Brains

Unlike Trump, who’s drawing major bets from the gambling crowd, Kamala Harris has the backing of a star-studded lineup of global influencers — even former President Barack Obama and a roster of over 80 Nobel laureates in the U.S.

In an open letter, more than 80 American Nobel Prize winners in physics, chemistry, medicine, and economics voiced their support for Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential run. 

The signatories range from a physicist who helped reveal the afterglow of the Big Bang to an immunologist who paved the way for a type of COVID-19 vaccine. Among the Nobel laureates are molecular biologist Gary Ruvkun, chemist David Baker, physicist John Hopfield, and economist Daron Acemoglu — all award recipients this year.

In their letter, Harris is lauded for her recognition that “the tremendous increase in living standards and life expectancy over the past two centuries is largely a result of scientific and technological advances.” Former President Donald Trump, on the other hand, is said to “endanger any gains in our standards of living, slow scientific and technological progress, and hamper our response to climate change.”

While in office, Trump proposed a budget that would have seriously undercut funding for federal health and science agencies. And on this year’s campaign trail, he suggested abolishing the Department of Education.

The letter concludes: 

This is the most consequential presidential election in a long time, perhaps ever, for the future of science and the United States. We, the undersigned, strongly support Harris.
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