The United States Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began its crucial two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, October 28, 2025, to review the American economy’s interest rate outlook. Chaired by Jerome Powell, the meeting is taking place at a time when global investors are closely tracking signals for potential changes to benchmark rates, decisions that influence everything from inflation and borrowing to currency flows and asset prices worldwide.
The meeting will conclude on Wednesday, October 29, with the policy outcome set to be released at 2 p.m. (EDT). The committee’s decision, followed by Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. (EDT) or 12 a.m. (IST), will determine whether the Federal Reserve continues with its rate-cutting cycle or opts to maintain rates amid persistent inflation risks.
Investors watch closely after September rate cut
In its previous policy meeting on September 17, 2025, the FOMC lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, setting the target range between 4.00% and 4.25%. The committee noted at the time that future moves would depend on evolving economic data. Since then, data has shown that consumer inflation climbed modestly, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 3% year-on-year in September, compared to 2.9% in August.
This mild uptick in prices, paired with a U.S. government shutdown backdrop, makes the October meeting a critical one for policymakers. Economists believe that while the central bank may remain data-dependent, the odds of another 25-basis-point reduction have increased sharply in recent weeks.
Market expectations lean toward another rate cut
CME FedWatch Tool shows investors have priced in a 99.9% probability of a rate cut in this meeting, encouraged by softer-than-expected CPI readings and rising concerns about slowing growth. Predictions from Polymarket suggest that the probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point reduction by December stands at around 86%.
If the Fed indeed delivers a 25-basis-point cut on Wednesday, it would signal continued confidence in a gradual easing path aimed at sustaining economic expansion while reining in inflation expectations. However, any indication of a longer pause or a more hawkish tone from Powell could spark volatility across global markets, including cryptocurrencies and equities.
Crypto market mirrors cautious sentiment
The total global crypto market capitalization slipped 1.2% to $3.9 trillion, according to data from CoinMarketCap, as traders held off from major moves ahead of the policy statement. Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $113,446, up 5% over the past week but down 0.6% in the last 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH) hovered around $4,017, down 2.3%, while Solana (SOL) and BNB fell 3.6% and 1.1%, respectively.
XRP stood out with a modest gain at $2.63, extending a strong seven-day rally as capital rotated toward higher-volume tokens. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained neutral at 51, reflecting steady sentiment despite tightening conditions. Open interest across major exchanges fell by 1.34% to $163 billion, while liquidations reached nearly $521 million, primarily from leveraged long positions, indicating fragile confidence among traders.
“The fluctuating macroeconomic backdrop is the dominant driver of this crypto cycle,” said Thomas Perfumo, global economist at Kraken. He noted that while a 25-basis-point cut appears highly probable, the crypto market remains exposed to broader financial conditions.
“ETF flows remain resilient, suggesting institutional capital is still flowing, but short-term risk tolerance has dipped,” he added.
Why the FOMC matters beyond borders
The Federal Open Market Committee is composed of 12 members, seven from the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, the president of the New York Fed, and four other Reserve Bank presidents who rotate on a one-year basis. The committee sets benchmark interest rates and oversees open market operations, regulating liquidity and credit conditions in the economy.
Changes in U.S. interest rates ripple through global markets by impacting the U.S. dollar, commodity prices, emerging-market capital flows, and risk assets like equities and cryptocurrencies. A rate cut typically supports higher-risk assets, while rate hikes or hawkish signals can dampen investor appetite.
Where to watch Jerome Powell’s speech
Investors and analysts can watch Jerome Powell’s press conference live on the Federal Reserve’s official website (federalreserve.gov) and its YouTube channel (youtube.com/federalreserve). The event will also be covered widely across global financial media outlets.
As the meeting concludes, traders, economists, and policymakers worldwide are now bracing for one of the most anticipated announcements of the year. Whether Powell confirms another rate cut or signals caution ahead could determine the direction of global markets heading into the final months of 2025.
Gunel Ismayilova
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