There have been many legendary presidential campaign rivalries in the history of United States elections, and the current Trump vs. Harris run is proving to be among the top contenders. As of now, polymarketer bettors have staked more than $1 billion on the outcome of the incoming US presidential election, and while Harris is in the lead, her lead is hanging on by a very thin thread. 

Data revealed by the prediction market site Polymarket shows that Kamala Harris, the woman seeking to be the first female president in US history, is leading ex-president Donald Trump by just one point. However, the data also makes Harris the favorite to win at least four of the six key swing states. 

The data shows those four states have a history of leaning toward the Democratic side over the Republican side. In fact, according to the data revealed by the poll aggregator site 270ToWin, Pennsylvania and Michigan have voted for Democratic candidates in the last seven elections, excluding the year 2016, when they voted Republican. 

However, in the 1980s, both of these states were consistently red, primarily due to Ronald Reagan's popularity, which contributed heavily to a clear victory for George H.W. Bush, his vice president, who later became his successor. 

Many poll watchers have also been eyeing Wisconsin, which is proving to be one of the most competitive states. Wisconsin is usually known for voting Democrats. However, the state voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 election, breaking a long streak of Democratic wins even though it has often shown tighter races between the two parties. 

As it stands, Wisconsin is upholding its reputation. A recent poll held by the New York Times/Siena College revealed that the race in the state is very close, with Harris leading at 49% and Trump at 47%. 

Harris is also the current favorite in the Polymarket polls for the Badger State. The data prediction site has given Harris a clean lead, pricing her at 56 cents a share, while Trump is priced at 56 cents per share compared to 44 cents for Trump. 

Each share pays out $1 in USDC if a candidate wins and $0 if they don’t. Harris, the favorite, has been signalled with a 56% chance of winning Wisconsin. But nothing is sure, not even Wisconsin. Polling in Wisconsin has often missed the mark. The elections in Wisconsin have been decided by less than one point in four out of the last six presidential elections held in the US. 

The elections are almost here, and the market can go either way, but the results will ultimately be decided at the election.

After the Trump vs. Harris Debate, Crypto Takes Another Lose | HODL FM
Crypto ignored in the Harris-Trump debate. Will their positions…
hodl-post-imageHODL FM: The Wildest Ride in the Crypto MarketKataryna Habeliia
hodl-post-image

Disclaimer: All materials on this site are for informational purposes only. None of the material should be interpreted as investment advice. Please note that despite the nature of much of the material created and hosted on this website, HODL FM is not a financial reference resource and the opinions of authors and other contributors are their own and should not be taken as financial advice. If you require advice of this sort, HODL FM strongly recommends contacting a qualified industry professional.