Jim Cramer from CNBC dissected Monday's market moves, suggesting they might reflect a belief among investors that Vice President Kamala Harris could win the presidential election. 

Wall Street Betting on Harris Win

Jim Cramer, the renowned financial analyst and host of CNBC's ‘Mad Money’, is famous for his bold opinions and deep insights into market trends, drawing on decades of experience in investments and market analysis. His takes on elections are especially valued, as he has a knack for interpreting how political outcomes may shake up financial markets.

Watching the market on Monday, Cramer speculated that Wall Street might be betting on a Harris victory in the upcoming election. As he put it:

Traders are always looking for signs that someone knows something others don’t.

According to Cramer, a recent poll showed Harris leading Trump 47% to 44%. This surprising poll, released over the weekend, also had Harris ahead in Iowa – a solidly red state that Trump had locked down in the last two elections. Cramer hinted that some on Wall Street may already be banking on a Harris triumph.

He added:

I’m not sure the market is right about what a Harris presidency would mean for business, but at least now we have a blueprint for what Wall Street thinks it’ll look like.

As if to back up his words, certain sectors saw an upturn. For instance, homebuilders like DR Horton, Lennar, and Toll Brothers enjoyed gains as investors possibly anticipated Harris’s planned tax breaks and aid for first-time homebuyers.

On top of that, companies reliant on imports, such as alcohol distributor Constellation Brands and beauty brand e.l.f. Beauty, rallied in anticipation of a more moderate trade policy under Harris, contrasting with Trump’s hardline stance and vows to impose tariffs across the board.

ChatGPT, which by its very nature cannot make political predictions, also unexpectedly expressed its opinion. When “asked” to weigh in, ChatGPT leaned in favor of Kamala Harris but declined to comment in favor of Donald Trump. A curious stance, especially given OpenAI’s collaboration with Microsoft, a strong supporter of the Democratic Party,  and ChatGPT itself seems to favor Kamala Harris.

Don't Forget About The ‘Inverse Cramer Effect’

TV host Jim Cramer may have indirectly hinted at a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming 2024 presidential election. Known for his bold market predictions on his show, Cramer has earned a reputation for, let’s say, “less than reliable” forecasts — hence the birth of the so-called “Inverse Cramer Effect.”

So, when Cramer recently announced that Kamala Harris would win, it triggered a wave of bets in the opposite direction: crypto investors and traders began doubling down on Trump, assuming Cramer’s latest forecast might once again be off the mark.

Meanwhile, whales on Polymarket are pouring millions into Trump’s victory, even as election day arrives. On November 5, an anonymous whale known as “walletmobile” deposited nearly $5 million in USD Coin on Polymarket to back Trump, already placing $2.8 million of it. Another whale, “zxgngl,” Polymarket’s biggest Trump supporter, withdrew an additional $3.1 million in USDC to wager on Trump today.

That said, traders haven’t entirely lost faith in a Harris win. An unnamed investor placed $5 million on Kamala Harris today as well, jumping on the last train. Maybe they know something we don’t.

Cramer himself remarked, “I don’t consider traders the best predictors.” While his comments on a possible Harris win sound grounded, the market remains on high alert.

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