Expectations for a December interest rate cut have sharply declined after the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced it will not release October jobs data, with November figures delayed until after the Federal Reserve’s final 2025 meeting.
Traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) now assign just a 33% probability to a rate reduction, down from 50% a day earlier and far below the near-certain odds seen less than a month ago. Market sentiment shifted following the Fed’s October meeting, when Chairman Jerome Powell signaled caution on further policy easing, surprising investors who had anticipated additional cuts.
The absence of timely employment data leaves the Fed without one of its most critical inputs for the December decision. Historically, policymakers have relied on current labor and inflation statistics to gauge the economy.
With only the September report available before the meeting, assessing the pace of economic slowdown becomes challenging, limiting momentum for dovish measures.
Impact on crypto and tech market
Cryptocurrency markets have mirrored this uncertainty. Bitcoin fell from $110,000 in late October to around $89,000, while crypto-linked stocks have experienced steep losses. Circle (CRCL) is down nearly 50% over the past month, and Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy has fallen approximately 40%.
Adding to the backdrop, former President Donald Trump criticized Powell’s policies at an investment forum, remarking that he would have replaced the Fed chair if not for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s advice to retain him until 2026. Such political commentary underscores the heightened scrutiny surrounding the Fed’s actions.
With limited new labor data and divided policy perspectives, markets appear poised for continued volatility, leaving investors to weigh the odds of rate adjustments amid incomplete economic signals.
Market implications and investor response
The absence of fresh jobs data leaves markets navigating increased uncertainty. Traders now have fewer reliable inputs to forecast Fed moves, which has pushed implied volatility higher across interest-rate-sensitive assets. Equities, particularly tech stocks and rate-sensitive growth names, have already reflected the shift in expectations, while the U.S. dollar has strengthened in anticipation of fewer cuts.
Crypto markets, highly sensitive to policy sentiment, have reacted sharply; Bitcoin dropped from $110,000 to $89,000 in recent weeks as investors recalibrated positions amid tightening expectations. Bonds and Treasury yields have also responded, reflecting investors’ reassessment of the timing and scope of potential rate cuts.
Investors are now increasingly hedging positions, reallocating toward safe-haven assets like gold or short-term treasuries, while the window for December policy remains clouded by the lack of up-to-date employment data. This environment underscores the heightened risk of volatility heading into the final Fed meeting of 2025.
Oleksii Shumak
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