Crypto has never been more closely tied to the outcome of a single political event. Republican candidate Donald Trump has made crypto support a cornerstone of his 2024 presidential campaign. Experts and analysts are buzzing with predictions that a Trump victory would trigger a sharp rise in crypto asset prices.

Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, predicts that Bitcoin could soar to $92,000 if Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November. He wrote that charting Bitcoin’s price against Trump’s odds on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket and applying some "merger arb-style probability math" showed a strong likelihood of Bitcoin rallying post-election.

Bitcoin millionaire Erik Finman is also bullish on Trump’s victory, believing it would transform the U.S. into a crypto-friendly environment, attracting massive investment into the crypto markets.

Finman says:

If Trump wins, I think Bitcoin could hit $100,000 during his second term.

Crypto market analyst and trader Crypto Rand added:

The most promising aspect of a Trump administration is its non-hostile stance on cryptocurrencies. That attitude alone is a game-changer and positions the U.S. as a leader in the crypto space.

At the moment, Trump leads Harris by 18.8% on the betting markets, but that doesn't paint the full picture — and here’s why.

Why You Shouldn’t Trust Crypto Prediction Markets

With 12 days left until the election, Polymarket has been buzzing with politically charged activity, with about 94% of all bets related to the election.

A recently registered Polymarket user, going by the name Ly67890, threw $2 million behind Vice President Kamala Harris, boosting her odds in the U.S. presidential race.

Ly67890’s bets were spread across dozens of transactions. The highest wager was around $148,500, with six bets exceeding $100,000, while some were as small as $0.87. 

But despite this, Polymarket’s previously even odds have been shifting more in favor of Republican Donald Trump since October 4, giving the former president a 62% chance of winning as of October 21.

For comparison, Harris’ biggest backer on Polymarket seems to be playing with pocket change compared to Fredi9999, who has placed a whopping $13 million bet on Trump.

However, some of Harris’ trusted insiders have questioned the usefulness of prediction markets. Earlier this week, billionaire investor Mark Cuban brushed off Polymarket’s odds, dismissing them as fueled by "foreign money" and stating that he doesn’t think they are "indicative of anything."

As a reminder, Polymarket’s betting odds don’t reflect real voter sentiment, as U.S. users were banned from the platform after its settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022. An external investigation was even launched to ensure major accounts like Fredi9999 are legit.

No matter what the crypto betting platforms say, it’s better to rely on actual polling data. At the moment, Harris is leading Trump by 1.8%, according to 538 polls.

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Source: 538

It’s also worth noting that some of Trump’s proposed economic policies, including his controversial tariffs, are seen as inflationary and could mess with Bitcoin’s price dynamics over the long term.

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