Polymarket Bets Double on Sam Bankman‑Fried Trump Pardon After CZ’s Release

Speculation surrounding a potential presidential pardon for former FTX CEO Sam Bankman‑Fried (SBF) has surged following the recent clemency granted to Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao. On crypto prediction platform Polymarket, bettors have sharply increased their wagers that the convicted FTX founder could receive a similar reprieve from President Donald Trump before the end of 2025.

Polymarket odds jump after CZ’s pardon

After Trump issued a presidential pardon to Zhao earlier this week, Polymarket’s market titled “Who will Trump pardon in 2025” saw SBF’s chances nearly double, rising from 5.6% to 12% within just 12 hours, before falling to 7%. More than $6.5 million has been wagered on that specific market so far, including $302,090 placed on Bankman‑Fried himself.

Another active prediction market titled “Released from custody in 2025” also experienced volatile activity. Odds for SBF’s release spiked from 4.3% to 19.1% before settling around 12%. While Bankman‑Fried has appealed to reduce his 25‑year sentence handed down in 2024, legal observers deem it unlikely that any significant outcome will occur before year‑end. Unless his appeal yields a quick reversal, a Trump pardon remains the only realistic route for his early freedom.

Comparing the cases of CZ and SBF

Zhao’s pardon has generated intense debate about whether SBF deserves similar clemency. Analysts and lawyers were quick to contrast the nature and severity of the two men’s offenses.

CZ’s charges were compliance-related, tied to U.S. Anti‑Money Laundering (AML) law violations that allegedly allowed illicit funds to flow through Binance. Despite the scope of the exchange’s global operations, Zhao was accused of failing to implement adequate controls rather than engaging in outright fraud. He received a four-month sentence, which many in the industry considered lenient compared to other high-profile cases.

SBF’s involvement, however, was on a much larger scale. He was convicted of fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering, with prosecutors establishing that billions in customer funds were misappropriated through FTX and its sister trading firm Alameda Research. His 25‑year sentence reflects the extent of investor harm and alleged deception.

Crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsky said he would be “truly shocked” if the Trump administration extended a pardon to SBF, emphasizing Bankman‑Fried’s reputation as a Democratic mega‑donor prior to the 2022 FTX collapse.

“His name is half punch line, half curse word in DC,”

Chervinsky said, adding that no serious policymaker in Washington appears to support clemency.

Another crypto attorney, Sasha Hodder, noted that Zhao’s infractions were “compliance-related, not criminal in the moral sense,” and fundamentally distinct from the theft and deception attributed to SBF or former Terraform Labs CEO Do Kwon.

Trump himself defended Zhao by saying he was told “what CZ did is not even a crime” and that the Binance founder was “persecuted by the Biden administration.” It is worth noting that Zhao is a key supporter of the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial crypto initiative, deepening speculation about political motivations behind his clemency.

Previous controversies: political allegations and “gm” mystery

This latest betting flurry follows weeks of renewed attention on Bankman‑Fried after a cryptic “gm” post appeared on his X (Twitter) account, allegedly sent via a friend managing his social media while he remains incarcerated. That brief message reignited debate around his case and prompted fresh discussions about the unresolved FTX bankruptcy dispute, particularly over repayment methods to creditors.

In a separate message shared on the platform GETTR, SBF claimed that his 2022 arrest under the Biden administration was politically motivated, alleging that federal prosecutors targeted him shortly after he donated “tens of millions” to Republican candidates. He also argued that his detention prevented him from testifying before Congress about a pending crypto regulation bill. House Republicans questioned the arrest timing, and a later SEC Office of Inspector General report revealed that some text messages from SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s government phone were erased during the same timeframe as key enforcement actions in the crypto industry.

Is a Trump pardon realistic for SBF?

Despite the uptick in Polymarket activity, legal experts consider a Trump pardon for Bankman‑Fried highly unlikely. Unlike Zhao, he lacks ties to Trump‑aligned networks and faces public resentment over the collapse of FTX, which left thousands of investors with substantial losses.

Still, reports suggest that SBF’s family and allies have sought to create channels of communication with figures in Trump’s circle to explore potential clemency requests. Whether these outreach efforts will succeed remains uncertain, but the ongoing speculation highlights just how intertwined politics, personality, and perception have become in crypto’s post‑FTX era.

For now, the betting markets remain active, but the odds may represent sentiment rather than any genuine prospect of freedom for one of crypto’s most infamous figures.

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