With ten months left until the U.S. presidential elections, it seems that traders on the decentralized prediction platform, Polymarket, are confident that former President Donald Trump will make a comeback. Since its debut in 2020, Polymarket has become one of the preferred destinations for traders looking to place bets on binary events.
A Few Words About Polymarket
Polymarket is the betting protocol brought to you by Polygon. This service has been in action since 2021, and in that time, it’s evolved into a globally recognized oracle of predictions.
The main idea behind this project is to create a colossal service for predicting social, political, economic, and even sports events. In this system, users create their forecast portfolios and, based on how their predictions pan out, make a profit. The service operates in a way that’s eerily similar to a bookmaker company – players place their bets and receive dividends if they make the right choice.
Trump’s forecast market
“YES” side stocks on Trump’s forecast market, tied to the contract “Winner of the 2024 Presidential Election,” were trading at 55 cents, representing a 55% chance of Trump winning the elections.
Traders are seeing a 38% chance of President Joe Biden holding onto power, and a mere 1% chance of victory for the American of Indian descent and Republican, Nikki Haley.
Traders have thrown more than 22 million dollars into the “Winner of the 2024 Presidential Election” contract, with a whopping 3.4 million dollars currently locked in on the Trump-centric prediction market. The contract’s expiration date is November 5th, and Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC will be the fortune-tellers for this market.
Trump is Heading to Victory among Republicans
Trump recently won the first two Republican Party primaries, where they try to figure out which candidate is the party’s best bet for leadership. Now, he can proudly claim the title of the first Republican presidential candidate to win open elections in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Trump breezed through the primaries in New Hampshire last week, taking control of the Republican nomination race and making the November rematch against President Joe Biden even more inevitable.
The result was a setback for former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who came in second place despite spending considerable time and financial resources in a state known for its independence. She’s the latest serious contender after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis quit his presidential campaign over the weekend, leaving her as the sole alternative to Trump.
Trump’s allies increased pressure on Haley, urging her to bow out of the race before the polling stations closed. However, after the results were announced, Haley vowed to continue her campaign.
Meanwhile, traders are assigning a 4% probability to the idea that Michelle Obama might take the lead over her competitors, amidst rumors that the former First Lady might soon throw her hat into the presidential race.
As Trump emerges in victories in the Republican primaries, the anticipation for the November rematch against President Biden is growing. Who knows, maybe someone will create a Polymarket event, predicting the outcome of this legendary confrontation. As the platform keeps taking new bets and exploding with activity, only time will tell on the accuracy of these forecasts and the real political outcome.
