Crypto Gamblers Bet on Pavel Durov's Release

No matter what's happening in the world, there's always someone trying to make a buck out of it. Market crashing? Go short and profit. Market on the rise? Go long and cash in. No matter the trend, someone always finds a way to profit. Be it a pandemic, a crisis, or new regulations, every situation opens up a window of opportunity for someone.

And when it comes to Pavel Durov's arrest, the crypto gamblers at Polymarket saw another chance to make some money. They're betting with a 72% probability that he’ll be free by October, with shares trading at 72 cents each. If their prediction comes true, each share will earn $1 in USDC stablecoin; if not, they get zero.

You might find it odd that bets are being placed on Durov's release all the way in October, especially since French prosecutors are saying he could be out as early as Wednesday. He was arrested on Saturday, August 24, 2024, at Le Bourget Airport and could be detained until Wednesday, August 28, 2024, if no charges are brought. Still, the bets are on for a longer hold. Polymarket isn't so sure he’ll be walking free this August.

Telegram hasn’t offered details about the arrest but did state that the Dubai-based company complies with EU laws and that its moderation "meets industry standards and is constantly improving."

“Telegram CEO Pavel Durov has nothing to hide and frequently travels across Europe,” Telegram said in a statement. “It’s absurd to claim that the platform or its owner is responsible for any misuse of the platform.”

Noise in the Swamps

Betting games aren't just for Polymarket — on the international political stage, countries have jumped in to defend their citizen too.

The so-called "Russian Mark Zuckerberg" holds dual citizenship in France and the United Arab Emirates. He obtained his French passport in 2021 through a rare fast-track process for high-profile foreigners, bypassing the usual legal requirements like living in the country for at least five years.

In response to his arrest, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs took a reasonable approach by requesting that France urgently provide him with "all necessary consular services as a matter of urgency."

Back in Durov's homeland, which he left in 2014 after refusing to shut down opposition groups on his social media platform VK, which he later sold under government pressure, a real uproar ensued. Suddenly, everyone there remembered the importance of free speech — though, of course, only in words.

Tensions between France and Russia had already been escalating for months, with French authorities accusing Russia of trying to destabilize the situation ahead of the Paris Olympics — a claim the Russian leader denied.

Though Durov had previously clashed with the Kremlin, his arrest sparked outrage in Moscow and was portrayed by Russian officials as an example of Western hypocrisy regarding free speech. As the saying goes, people often fail to not see the plank in one's own eye.

"The arrest of Pavel Durov confirmed that there was never any European or even global (pro-Western) freedom of speech," said Sergey Mironov, a veteran Russian ultranationalist politician and ally of Vladimir Putin.

Maria Butina, a Russian lawmaker who spent 15 months in a US prison for acting as an unregistered Russian agent, claimed that Durov "is a political prisoner — a victim of a Western witch hunt."

The Russian Embassy in Paris announced on X that French authorities had refused to cooperate with its requests for consular access but stated that they were in contact with Durov's lawyer.

Ironically, on June 10, Durov wrote on his Telegram channel, "As a citizen of France, I agree that France is the best place for a vacation." Who would have thought that his vacation would turn into a stint in jail with a potential 20-year sentence? Life truly knows how to surprise.

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