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Our agenda today is the recent outflow of funds across Bitcoin ETFs for a number of consecutive days.

Bitcoin ETF Outflows

Bitcoin ETFs have gyrated into the spotlight with a staggering $563.7 million outflow on May 1st, making it the worst day in the history of Bitcoin ETFs since inception. This massive outflow also marks another day in withdrawals which have been happening consecutively since 27th April 2024. Meanwhile, the market trend also aligns with Bitcoin’s recent plunge from its all time high by 20%.

BlackRock’s IBIT waved goodbye to $36.9 million, its first redemption since launch, following a five-day dry spell where it recorded no inflows. But don’t let that fool, who’s counting when you still have a not-so-shabby $15,441.7 billion in total inflows? A figure enough to wipe their tears or perhaps even disguise them.

Related: Hong Kong’s Crypto ETF Debut: From High Hopes to Modest Beginnings

Fidelity’s FBTC is no stranger to the party either, as it saw $191.1 million sneak out the back door, marking the fifth day in a row of bleeding out funds. Still, with a breezy $7,927.5 billion in the bank, they’re probably not losing sleep over it – unless they prefer to swim in their money Scrooge McDuck-style.

Source: Tenor

Ark’s ARKB was next in line among the list of Bitcoin ETF funds that saw record outflows, the fund witnessed a $98.1 million dollar jailbreak, slashing its total funds to a mere $2,124.9 billion. 

Meanwhile, Grayscale’s GBTC managed to top that drama with a whopping $167.4 million exodus, the largest one-day outflow since April 8, leaving the company with a net outflow so dizzying you’d think it was a game of Monopoly gone wrong—$17,469.9 billion. But well, Bitcoin ETFs still have their party hats on, as they’ve somehow raked in a cool $11,221.5 billion, despite BTC prices doing the cha-cha.

BTF ETF Flow Data. Source: Farside

Technical Onchain Metrics Suggest Similar Market Behavior in Recent Cycle Vs Previous Cycles

Elsewhere across on-chain metrics, historical data suggests Bitcoin’s recent drop from the $73,600 high mirrors previous stages of the bull cycle. The leading coin has experienced notable changes in price but each value has always varied depending on the stage. One of the fascinating trends emerges from the following Glassnode data.

As shown above, Bitcoin is trading 12% below its 2021 high, a peak it established in April 2021. At the given phase, this position happens to lie between the trajectories of the previous two cycles.

Source: Tenor

During the 2013-2017 cycle, Bitcoin was approximately 30% below its highest recorded peak at this juncture. Conversely, in the 2017-2021 cycle, it had surged to over 50% above its previous peak. The current downturn falls somewhere between these two previous cycles.

Moreover, the two cycles have also recorded significant drawdowns from their peak levels at a stage similar to what we currently have now. However, the 2013 – 2017 cycle recorded a 30% plummet, while on the other hand, the 2017 – 2021 cycle witnessed an even higher pullback.

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Hence, according to on-chain analysis experts, a pullback from the current levels to $51,000 appears realistic. However, it is important to note that not all the time future performance mirrors past price movements. All we are doing is pointing out a typical cyclical behavior of Bitcoin that may or may not forecast the future price direction.

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