When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived at the White House on February 28 to sign a rare-earth metals deal, he was probably expecting a constructive dialogue. Instead, he found himself in the middle of a political circus, where, behind the scenes, crypto traders were already placing bets on his future.
On Polymarket, hundreds of thousands of dollars have been wagered on whether Zelensky will resign by July. Maybe someone in the Oval Office was casually checking the odds on their phone while the meeting was taking place.
"Where is your gratitude?"
Negotiations between Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President J.D. Vance felt less like a diplomatic discussion and more like a mob-style standoff. At one point, Trump accused Zelensky of not showing enough gratitude for U.S. aid.
"You either make a deal, or we’re out. And if we’re out, it won’t be funny for you. You don’t have any cards right now," Trump declared.
"I don’t play cards," Zelensky shot back. "I’m very serious, Mr. President. I’m a president at war."
That’s when Vance jumped in: "Have you even said thank you once for this whole meeting?"
For the record, Zelensky has publicly thanked the U.S. more then 30 times, most recently on February 12, just two weeks before this White House visit. But let’s be honest: for an audience more interested in political theater and betting odds, sincerity isn’t nearly as important as the spectacle.
Zelensky, driven into a corner by rhetorical jabs about Ukraine’s struggles with manpower, reminded Vance that he had never been to Ukraine to talk about the problems there: “Come once.”
The World Supports, Crypto Takes Bets
While Washington was putting on a political farce, things were heating up on Polymarket. Crypto traders had already wagered around $1.1 million on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would leave office by July with the modest 20% chance of an early exit.
After the meeting, a new bet popped up on whether Zelensky would apologize to Trump by Friday, March 7. This one attracted less - modest $157,000, with only a 5% probability that an apology is coming.
You have to say pwease and tank you, Mistow Zensky pic.twitter.com/WwVUnHOaoO
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) March 3, 2025
Meanwhile, the world community is clearly placing its bets on Zelensky. Leaders from Germany, France, Spain, Poland, and the Netherlands all took to social media to express their support for Ukraine, with Zelensky personally thanking each of them in return.
They were soon joined by the prime ministers of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Spain as well as EU leaders António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen, who reassured Zelensky that they would continue working with him “for a just and lasting peace.”
Your dignity honors the bravery of the Ukrainian people.
— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) February 28, 2025
Be strong, be brave, be fearless.
You are never alone, dear President @ZelenskyyUa.
We will continue working with you for a just and lasting peace.
Secret Talks and a Letter from Zelensky
Trump officials held secret talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his team following the Oval Office fiasco, according to CNN. The US president was eager to announce a win on the rare-earth metals deal, and his administration was pushing hard to get everything signed before his Congress address on Tuesday, March 4.
Sources say Trump officials stressed the urgency of stabilizing relations with the White House and urged the Ukrainians to resume negotiations before the president’s speech.
The plan didn’t go 100% according to script, but Trump still got something out of it. Zelensky sent a conciliatory letter, saying he was ready to work under Trump’s “strong leadership” and that “it’s time to set things right.” Trump took the letter as a sign of de-escalation between the two leaders, and even suggested that Zelensky had agreed to a peace deal.
The Trump administration is confident that talks to revive the deal are moving in the right direction. And by the way, Zelensky’s letter, despite its reconciliation tone, never actually included the magic words: "Thank you."
Kataryna Habeliia
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