Crypto market sentiment has remained in “extreme fear” for 14 consecutive days, reflecting persistent caution among investors despite Bitcoin trading at roughly five times its 2022 levels.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell three points to 20 out of 100 on Dec. 26, continuing a stretch that began on Dec. 13.
This marks one of the longest periods of extreme fear since the index launched in February 2018.
Market sentiment has been declining since early October, when renewed US-China tariff concerns erased nearly $500 billion from the crypto market in a single day.
Macroeconomic and market drivers
Investors are also watching the Federal Reserve closely. Fears that the Fed may pause interest rate cuts in early 2026 have contributed to anxiety, with Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at crypto exchange BTSE, suggesting Bitcoin could fall to $70,000 if rates remain steady.
Bitcoin currently trades near $88,650, roughly 30% below its all-time high of $126,080 set on Oct. 6.
Despite the recent drawdown, the current index reading is even lower than during the FTX collapse in November 2022, when Bitcoin briefly fell toward $16,000, underscoring the depth of caution among market participants.
Retail engagement dips
Data from analytics firm Alphractal indicates that crypto-related search volume, Wikipedia views, and online forum discussions have also dropped sharply.
“December 2025 shows retail investors are discouraged, disengaged, and largely absent from the crypto market,” the platform noted, highlighting the muted public interest compared with previous bull cycles.
📉 Crypto social volume has returned to levels typically seen during bear markets
— Alphractal (@Alphractal) December 20, 2025
🔍 Google searches are declining
📚 Wikipedia page views are falling
💬 Posts and discussions on forums like 4chan are also decreasing
➡️ Social sentiment is clearly bearish.
In December 2025,… pic.twitter.com/TQuW7FILs5
Alphractal Graphs Show Decline.
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, attributes the pullback in sentiment largely to “crypto-native retail” investors. Many were burned by past events, including FTX, memecoin crashes, and unfulfilled altcoin rallies, as well as the October 10 liquidation.
“They’re just sitting this one out,” Hougan said.
In contrast, “traditional retail” newer investors from outside the crypto-native ecosystem, remains active.
Hougan pointed to strong inflows into US Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have attracted over $25 billion in 2025 despite a 5% year-to-date loss for Bitcoin.
What the sentiment signal means
The extended period of extreme fear highlights a divergence between institutional and retail behavior.
While crypto-native participants remain cautious, more traditional investors are steadily entering the market through regulated ETFs.
The sentiment indicator, combined with declining social activity, paints a picture of a market in consolidation, waiting for a catalyst, be it macroeconomic clarity, regulatory developments, or renewed investor confidence, to shift the prevailing mood.
Oleksii Shumak
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