Standard Chartered now forecasts a 50-basis-point September cut, doubling its earlier projection, fueling optimism across Bitcoin and broader risk assets.
The cryptocurrency market is on a wave of optimism this week after Standard Chartered sharply revised its expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next move. In a note reported by Reuters on Sept. 8, the bank said it now expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September policy meeting, twice the size of its previous forecast of 25 bps.
The revision comes amid clear signs of economic cooling. August non-farm payrolls showed just 22,000 new jobs, compared with forecasts of 75,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, breaking out of a 15-month range. Standard Chartered concluded the labor market had shifted “from solid to soft in less than six weeks,” creating the conditions for a more aggressive Fed response.
Diverging views on the path ahead
Other major institutions are also recalibrating. Bank of America now expects two smaller rate cuts, one in September and another in December. But Standard Chartered warned the larger September cut could be a one-off, citing “sticky inflation and fiscal easing” as barriers to sustained dovishness.
Markets, however, appear convinced that easing is imminent. Fed funds futures are pricing in near-certainty of a cut at the Sept. 17–18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with traders looking to Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech for confirmation.
Why it matters for crypto
For digital assets, the prospect of looser monetary policy is a bullish trigger. Lower rates reduce the cost of capital and increase liquidity, conditions that tend to benefit risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. A steeper yield curve also incentivizes greater risk-taking, as investors seek higher returns outside traditional fixed income.
In derivatives markets, this optimism is already visible. Open interest in Bitcoin options has risen, particularly in December 2025 call contracts. The positioning suggests traders are preparing for a scenario where macro conditions drive Bitcoin to fresh highs.Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek, in an interview with Bloomberg, mentioned “liquidity drives this industry,” highlighting crypto’s historic sensitivity to central bank moves.
Policy risks and political undercurrents
The outlook is not without complications. The Department of Justice has reportedly subpoenaed documents tied to mortgage fraud claims against Fed Governor Lisa Cook, raising fresh scrutiny over the central bank’s independence. While unlikely to alter the immediate policy trajectory, the probe has amplified political noise around the Fed at a sensitive moment.
Gunel Ismayilova
Disclaimer: All materials on this site are for informational purposes only. None of the material should be interpreted as investment advice. Please note that despite the nature of much of the material created and hosted on this website, HODL FM is not a financial reference resource, and the opinions of authors and other contributors are their own and should not be taken as financial advice. If you require advice. HODL FM strongly recommends contacting a qualified industry professional.
