October has historically been a bullish month for Bitcoin and the crypto market, often boasting positive price action in nine of the last 11 years, earning the month the playful nickname "Uptober." But judging by this year’s performance so far, it’s hard to justify such optimism. Social media is already bursting with memes about “Downvember” and “Octobear” instead.

Bitcoin has shed about 4.7% this month, starting with a peak of $64,000 on October 1st. It briefly dipped below $60,000 on October 3rd before recovering slightly to $61,000 at the time of writing.

The crypto markets have collectively lost around $200 billion, or about 8%, since the start of the month. As of October 3rd, total market capitalization fell 1.9% to mid-September levels, settling at $2.2 trillion.

Uptober turns into Selltobear

In an investor note dated October 4th, analysts from 10x Research highlighted that numerous crypto bulls have been taken by surprise since March, having anticipated a continued bullish trend. The hype has faded, reflecting the $200 billion decline in market value since October kicked off.

Trader "Ash Crypto" told his 1.1 million X followers on October 3rd that, "BTC might drop a little more so that people stop believing in Uptober," before adding:

As soon as the bears start panicking and calling for $40K to $45K, BTC will start to rally.

In an investor note on October 4th, analysts at 10x Research pointed out that many crypto bulls have been caught off guard since March, expecting the bullish trend to continue.

Technical indicators suggest the rally may have been overstretched, the analysts said, adding:

It seems now that early followers (OGs) are selling off, and major token unlocks are pushing prices lower, despite strong stablecoin inflows, Bitcoin spot ETFs, and rising futures leverage.

However, Santiment founder Maksim Balashevich sees a glimmer of hope, noting that the fading "Uptober" hype could pave the way for a short-term bounce:

The excitement around Uptober is waning as the market dips, which could open the door for a rebound. It’s still unclear if the broader downtrend is over.

Is There Still Hope for a Rally?

Over the past five October, Bitcoin has seen gains ranging from 5.5% to 40%, even during bear markets.

Historically, markets tend to pick up around mid-October, so don’t get too fixated on a rough start to the month.

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Source: Ash Crypto X Account

Bitcoin experienced a 7% decline during the first half of October 2023, falling from $28,500 on October 2nd to $26,650 by October 13th. However, it staged a sharp 30% rally, finishing the month at $34,500.

With past Octobers delivering gains even during bear markets, it’s too early to write off the month just yet. As the market buzz around "Uptober" fades, the stage might be set for an unexpected rally. After all, crypto thrives on surprises. If the bears start calling for $40K, don’t be shocked if Bitcoin flips the script, as it often does. Keep your eyes wide open on charts and hodlfm news.

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