The mood around Bitcoin as the election nears is distinctly upbeat. Market experts spot bullish signals for risk assets, with a few favorable tailwinds blowing in, no matter who clinches the win.
According to trader Daan Crypto Trades, Bitcoin's price could swing by at least 10% depending on who wins the U.S. presidential race on November 5. This is no idle speculation, as Bitcoin volatility just hit a three-month-high. On November 3, Deribit’s volatility index for Bitcoin reached this peak, keeping everyone on edge.
#Bitcoin Not the cleanest looking weekly candle this week but with what's coming I don't think it really matters either way.
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) November 3, 2024
I think there is a good probability that price will see at least a 10% move to either direction depending on who ends op winning the election this week. pic.twitter.com/OMvGCpr3Ba
Meanwhile, Donald Trump, who's turned notably crypto-friendly on the campaign trail, is seen as a short-term crypto optimist. He’s made promises to protect and promote crypto innovation in the U.S. Yet, given his track record of broken promises, one can’t help but wonder: will he really keep his crypto commitments?
Analyzing Trump’s Crypto Vision
This year, Trump has turned to cryptocurrency to court crypto voters. Back in July, the Republican Party rolled out a draft of its platform, making a special mention of cryptocurrency in its innovation agenda.
The Unachievable Mining Centralization
On Truth Social, Trump declared he wants “all remaining Bitcoins to be produced in the U.S.,” claiming it would help secure “energy dominance” for America.
But Ben Gagnon, CEO of crypto mining company Bitfarms, was quick to point out that Bitcoin's decentralized infrastructure makes it impossible for one country to mine all Bitcoins.
It's neither feasible nor wise for 100% of Bitcoin to be mined in the U.S. or any single country.
Trump’s promise to mine the remaining bitcoins is impossible and fundamentally defies Satoshi Nakamoto’s founding principles of decentralization.
A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Trump’s plan to have the U.S. hold onto 100% of the Bitcoin it currently has sounds ambitious but is complicated. A significant portion of these holdings came from law enforcement seizures, especially after the Bitfinex hack, so technically, these assets don’t fully belong to the government.
There's a slight problem no one is acknowledging regarding the plan for the US Federal Government to HODL all 200,000 BTC in its possession:
— Jameson Lopp (@lopp) July 27, 2024
95,000 BTC from that stash rightfully belongs to @bitfinex.
Many of them should rightfully go back to Bitfinex or other affected parties, meaning legal pressure is mounting for their return.
The Gensler Firing
Trump’s vow to dismiss SEC Chair Gary Gensler “on day one” has won cheers from the crypto community, who often criticize the SEC's “regulation by enforcement” approach. But firing Gensler isn't quite that simple.
A president must justify the dismissal of an SEC chair “for cause”, which means proving neglect or inefficiency, a process that can drag on for a year. Without Senate approval, it’s possible, but Trump might have to share space with Gensler for a while before seeing fresh leadership.
Paying Off the National Debt with Crypto
The mounting $35 trillion debt is a looming risk that could potentially cause serious long-term economic problems. Trump boldly suggested:
Crypto has a big future. Maybe we’ll pay off that $35 trillion in cryptocurrency.”
Ric Edelman, founder of the Advisor Appointment Program for the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals platform, noted that while crypto could theoretically help tackle national debt. But he said he was equally confident that:
Trump will not succeed in his efforts to create such a reserve fund, or if he does, his successor will eliminate it.
Edelman summed it up as “a fun campaign line, but that’s about it.” So, Trump’s crypto pitch is nothing short of ambitious and occasionally outlandish.
Abimbola Adu
Disclaimer: All materials on this site are for informational purposes only. None of the material should be interpreted as investment advice. Please note that despite the nature of much of the material created and hosted on this website, HODL FM is not a financial reference resource and the opinions of authors and other contributors are their own and should not be taken as financial advice. If you require advice of this sort, HODL FM strongly recommends contacting a qualified industry professional.
