Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer and co-founder of Maelstrom and former CEO of BitMEX, believes Bitcoin’s historic four-year market cycle is coming to an end.
In his latest essay titled “Long Live the King!” published Thursday, Hayes argued that the world’s largest cryptocurrency is unlikely to face a bear market in the near term as global monetary conditions remain supportive. According to Hayes, the primary cause behind Bitcoin’s previous downturns, in 2014, 2018, and 2022, was not the halving cycle itself but tightening monetary policy across major economies.
Each of those periods saw Bitcoin’s price drop roughly 70% to 80% from its peak as liquidity dried up.
Monetary policy, not halving cycles
Hayes’ essay revisits a long-running debate about what truly drives Bitcoin’s market rhythms. While traditional analysis ties its bull and bear phases to the scheduled halving of mining rewards every four years, Hayes insists that fiat liquidity, not code-based scarcity, has historically set the tone.
“Long Live the King!” an essay on why the $BTC 4yr cycle is dead.
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) October 9, 2025
https://t.co/7RldfQVqT5
Arthur Hayes Essay. Source.
Bitcoin’s block reward halving, which cuts miners’ per-block earnings in half every four years, has traditionally defined its long-term market structure. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, leading some investors to expect a peak in the current bull market within the next year, followed by an extended correction.
Hayes, however, sees that expectation as misplaced. He argues that the ongoing macroeconomic environment diverges sharply from previous cycles, where tightening credit and higher interest rates triggered selloffs.
“As the four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle is upon us, traders wish to apply the historical pattern and forecast an end to this bull run,” Hayes wrote. “But the four-year cycle is dead. The coming flood of fiat liquidity will keep the bull market alive.”
To put this perspective into context, looking back at past post-halving periods shows how Bitcoin’s price reacted to shifts in liquidity and market behavior, rather than the halving itself.
Following a previous halving, Bitcoin reached new highs, with market dominance climbing and ETF inflows indicating growing institutional interest. Miner reserves remained largely intact, tightening supply and supporting price stability. These patterns illustrate how liquidity and broader economic conditions, rather than the halving itself, have historically influenced Bitcoin’s price trajectory, a perspective Hayes emphasizes in his analysis of the four-year cycle.
Expanding liquidity environment
Hayes points to policy shifts in the U.S., Japan, and China as reasons to expect continued liquidity expansion. In the United States, he noted, newly elected President Trump has pledged to stimulate growth through lower interest rates and increased spending.
“The new administration wants to run the economy hot,” Hayes said. “Trump also speaks about lowering the cost of housing to release trillions of dollars of trapped home equity.”
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025, bringing them near 4%, and is expected to reduce rates further over the next year, up to 100 basis points in total.
In Japan, the new prime minister is reportedly embracing the pro-growth Abenomics strategy, while China’s efforts to combat deflation indicate that it will likely maintain or expand liquidity rather than restrict it.
A market shaped by central banks
Recent analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle is becoming less predictive as the market matures. Institutional investors are playing an increasingly central role, shifting the ecosystem toward a more stable, professional environment. At the same time, altcoins like Cardano and Ethereum are attracting diversified interest, signaling that crypto price movements are now influenced by a wider array of factors beyond Bitcoin halvings alone.
These trends reinforce the idea that macroeconomic conditions and broader liquidity are likely more relevant than historical cycle patterns.
In closing, Hayes summarized his perspective in simple terms:
“Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future.”
If Hayes is correct, the familiar rhythm of Bitcoin’s halving-driven cycles may be fading, replaced instead by a new era where global liquidity, not code, sets the pace for crypto markets.
Maryna Hornieieva
Disclaimer: All materials on this site are for informational purposes only. None of the material should be interpreted as investment advice. Please note that despite the nature of much of the material created and hosted on this website, HODL FM is not a financial reference resource and the opinions of authors and other contributors are their own and should not be taken as financial advice. If you require advice of this sort, HODL FM strongly recommends contacting a qualified industry professional.
