Ethereum climbed back above the $4,500 level on Sept. 12, supported by both institutional flows and on-chain evidence of accumulation. At press time, ETH traded at $4,518, up 2.5% in the last 24 hours and 4.4% higher over the past week, according to CoinGecko. The second‑largest cryptocurrency is only 8.6% below its all-time high of $4,946 reached on Aug. 24.
Derivatives market signals fresh positioning
Trading activity shows steady engagement. 24‑hour spot volume reached $36.38 billion, down slightly by 0.3%. By contrast, Coinglass data recorded a 5.7% increase in derivatives volume to $97.32 billion and a 2.64% rise in open interest to $61.72 billion, underscoring new positioning in Ethereum futures.
Market participants highlight that strong open interest in futures markets often reflects either sustained bullish conviction or the potential for sharp liquidations.
Long-term accumulation around $4,300–$4,400
Contributor Crazzyblockk at CryptoQuant reported that buyers have steadily accumulated ETH in the $4,300–$4,400 range, with nearly 1.7 million ETH transferred into long-term wallets.
He observed that Binance led outflows during the accumulation phase. On-chain data shows deposits into Binance began when ETH traded close to $3,150, but the average cost basis for these withdrawals is around $4,300, suggesting long-term holders are rotating holdings as new buyers increase demand.
Institutions drive futures demand
Another CryptoQuant contributor, PelinayPA, pointed to surging institutional activity. She reported that open interest on CME Ethereum futures has hit all-time highs, particularly in contracts with one to three‑month durations. Longer‑dated futures are also gaining traction.
PelinayPA compared the current cycle to Ethereum’s past patterns: open interest was relatively low during the 2021–2022 bull market, collapsed during the 2022 bear cycle, and has steadily recovered since 2023.
She said strong institutional participation is “evident in the current market,” fueling both upside momentum and the risk of sharper corrections around expiries. If leverage remains manageable, she suggested ETH might test the $6,800 zone by year-end.
Technical price outlook
Technical signals are leaning constructive. ETH continues to trade above its 20‑day moving average near $4,406, while its upper Bollinger Band at $4,654 remains immediate resistance.
The relative strength index (RSI) sits around 58, pointing to ongoing demand that is not yet overheated. Momentum has turned positive, though oscillators and MACD imply short‑term pullbacks remain possible.
Near‑term targets include $4,900–$5,000 if ETH breaks above $4,654. On the downside, failure to hold support at $4,158 could expose a decline toward $4,000.
Intraday charting (Kraken data) shows a support trend line forming near $4,470, with resistance at $4,550–$4,580. A clean breakout above $4,580 may open the path to $4,740–$4,800.
Institutional flows and whale positioning
Institutional funds now hold approximately 6.5–6.7 million ETH, nearly double April’s levels, according to CryptoQuant data. Large whale wallets (10,000–100,000 ETH) collectively control more than 20 million ETH, reflecting stronger long‑term conviction.
Ethereum demand hits new highs.
— CryptoBusy (@CryptoBusy) September 12, 2025
Fund holdings have climbed to an all-time high of 6.7M $ETH, while overall holder balances reached 20.6M $ETH. Institutions and long-term holders are steadily accumulating.
Staking, ETF inflows, and on-chain activity are reinforcing $ETH as both… pic.twitter.com/zNPtEfi29o
While this provides a foundation for bullish sentiment, analysts caution that much of the “smart money” is already positioned, suggesting new inflows are needed to maintain momentum.
Record staking and network activity
Ethereum’s staking participation has reached a record 36 million ETH locked in validator contracts, shrinking circulating supply. This supports long‑term price strength but may slow additional inflows given how much supply is already committed.
On-chain activity is equally resilient. Ethereum now records over 12 million smart contract executions daily, with DeFi transactions, stablecoin transfers, and token interactions at historic highs. This cements the network’s role as the leading programmable blockchain.
Exchange flows point to accumulation
Exchange flows confirm holding behavior. Deposits into centralized exchanges have dropped notably since ETH neared $5,000. CryptoQuant analysts interpret this as accumulation, with fewer traders moving coins to exchanges for potential selling.
Despite bullish trends, ETH continues to face resistance near $5,200, a zone that has repeatedly capped rallies. Analysts say consolidation or a corrective pullback is possible if momentum fades below $4,500–$4,400.
Outlook
Ethereum’s market structure shows rising institutional flows, whale accumulation, record staking, and strong network usage, all supportive for the long term. However, with many large holders already allocated and resistance overhead, short-term volatility remains likely.
The key level to watch is $5,200: a decisive break could unleash new highs, while failure to hold above $4,000 would expose the market to deeper retracements.
Anastasiia G
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