It looks like crypto is shaking off its recent dip, with a weekend rebound sparking fresh bullish vibes, and Ethereum is stealing the spotlight. The growing expectations of ETH reaching $6,000 by December have made waves, as options activity points to an explosive rise.
The crypto market’s enthusiasm is partly due to the fresh trade deal between the U.S. and the European Union, which was sealed on Sunday. The deal is pretty significant; it impacts about a third of global trade and brings a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S., while Europe agrees to purchase more U.S. energy and defense products. That’s quite a change from earlier this year when we were staring down the barrel of 30% tariffs!
And honestly, no one’s complaining. A bit of clarity around trade relations is exactly what we need. This avoidance of tensions sets a more stable environment, making investors feel more comfortable diving into riskier assets like crypto. Surprise tariffs? Not so much. They create a risk-off mood.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, saw a healthy 4.45% uptick since Friday, rising from $115,000 to $119,812. Not to be outdone, Ethereum surged 8.8%, moving from $3,570 to $3,900.
Nick Forster, the brains behind on-chain options platform Derive, has a solid perspective:
"That market dip last week? Don’t let it fool you. It’s been a monster month."
Forster points out that Ethereum’s upside bets have exploded, with the probability of reaching $6,000 by December 25 skyrocketing from under 7% at the start of July to over 30%. Now, that’s a major shift in risk outlook. And if you ask me, it’s setting the stage for some seriously exciting times ahead.
The Calm Before the Storm: Are Bitcoin and Ethereum Set for Year-End Rallies?
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Fund, is also in the Ethereum-to-the-moon camp, expecting the coin to hit a new all-time high in the next 6 to 12 months. And here's the kicker: Bitcoin has been hovering near record highs, but without the usual signs of speculative excess. Implied volatility and funding rates are low, meaning this rally feels a lot more stable and less frothy.
This shift is likely a direct result of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs making it easier for traditional investors to get involved without the wild ride of leverage. Forster agrees, saying Mike Novogratz’s $150,000 prediction for Bitcoin is no longer a "moonshot." According to options markets, there’s now a 52% chance of Bitcoin hitting that target by year-end. Talk about a change in perspective!
Looking at December’s implied volatility, Bitcoin is sitting at a relatively chill 30%, while Ethereum is showing more volatility at 60%. Forster expects a "smoother climb" for Bitcoin but warns Ethereum will be in for a wilder ride.
On the bright side, more liquidity from new on-ramps like ETFs and fiat access has kept implied volatility pretty low, even while Bitcoin hits new all-time highs. Pauline Shangett, CSO of ChangeNOW, says that the crypto industry is evolving and maturing, meaning that the classic "four-year cycle" theory might just be a thing of the past. As she puts it, the industry’s coming of age is rewriting the rules.
Ethereum’s rising volatility isn’t the only thing shaking up the crypto world. Solana’s odds of crossing $300 by December 25 took a hit, dropping from 45% to 36%, after an impressive jump from 25% to 45% just 10 days earlier. That’s a bit of a letdown for Solana bulls, but as Shangett puts it, “altseason” will be more subdued this time around, with a rotation towards more established assets rather than speculative surges.
The outlook for Ethereum, however, remains as bullish as ever, but there are plenty of market-moving events on the calendar this week. The Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan’s interest rate decisions on Wednesday are going to be huge, and everyone’s watching closely. On Friday, we’ll also get a peek at the U.S. job market, with forecasts expecting 110,000 new jobs in July.
Forster also points out an interesting tidbit: President Trump has hinted at firing Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair. If that happens, it could kick off a "buying frenzy" across majors, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. The possibility of a looser monetary policy under a new Fed leadership could fuel momentum in digital assets, especially if the options market’s growing confidence aligns with a big end-of-year rally for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
All in all, the future is looking bright for the crypto market, with Ethereum potentially leading the charge to new heights. So, get ready! We could be in for one wild ride.
Anastasiia G
Disclaimer: All materials on this site are for informational purposes only. None of the material should be interpreted as investment advice. Please note that despite the nature of much of the material created and hosted on this website, HODL FM is not a financial reference resource, and the opinions of authors and other contributors are their own and should not be taken as financial advice. If you require advice. HODL FM strongly recommends contacting a qualified industry professional.
