Ethereum fell below the $4,000 mark for the first time since early August, as a mix of macroeconomic concerns, ETF outflows, and cascading liquidations rattled the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency.
Price action and liquidations
According to TradingView, ETH traded around $3,999 at 1:00 a.m. Thursday, later recovering modestly to about $4,037, still off nearly 3% in the past 24 hours. By Friday, Ethereum was priced near $3,988, down about 4% on the day and 13% on the week. Is the September curse coming true?
Blockchain data showed heavy derivatives activity behind the move. Coinglass reported more than $170 million in long positions liquidated, with one whale losing over $36.4 million in a forced liquidation on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid. Analyst Lookonchain said the whale address “0xa523” had its 9,152 ETH levered bet liquidated, bringing total losses above $45M.
In total, over $100 million in leveraged bets were wiped out during Asian trading hours, Coinglass data revealed, with the majority involving bullish ETH positions.
Analysts: breakdown at $4.2K support
Rachael Lucas, a crypto analyst at BTC Markets, said the sell-off was triggered by both technical and macro pressures:
“Ethereum’s recent dip below the psychological $4K mark was triggered by a mix of technical breakdowns, macroeconomic jitters, and cascading liquidations. A failure to hold the $4,200 support zone led to over US$1.7 billion in altcoin liquidations, with ETH alone accounting for US$212.9 million.”
Macro and ETF outflows
The macro picture hasn’t supported Ethereum’s short-term rally attempts. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bps in September, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized “no hurry to further lower rates,” dampening optimism.
ETF flows have added pressure. SoSoValue data showed $79.4M in net outflows from U.S. spot ETH ETFs on Sept. 24, marking the third straight day of redemptions. Fidelity’s FETH led with $33.3M in withdrawals, followed by BlackRock’s ETHA at $26.5M. Other issuers, including Grayscale, Ark 21Shares, and Bitwise, also saw outflows.
By comparison, ETH ETFs brought in more than $3.8B of inflows in August, making September’s $110M net inflows significantly weaker.
Long-term holders accumulating
Despite short-term selling pressure, analysts pointed to accumulation trends. Lucas noted that on-chain data shows ~420,000 ETH withdrawn from centralized exchanges this week, a sign of buying strength.
Nassar Achkar, Chief Strategy Officer at CoinW, said exchange balances confirm this trend:
“[This underscores] a profound shift toward long-term holding amid growing institutional confidence. This sustained outflow signals a potential supply shock on the horizon, as whales and retail buyers prioritize self-custody and staking yields over short-term trading, potentially setting up ETH's next major price rally.”
On-chain monitoring service Lookonchain also reported that on Sept. 25, ten wallets amassed over 210,452 ETH ($862.9M) via exchanges and OTC desks, including Kraken, Galaxy Digital, BitGo, and FalconX.
Trading activity remains strong
Despite the price drop, Ethereum trading remained active. CoinGecko data showed spot trading volume at $35.2B daily, up 13% from the previous session. Derivatives volumes rose 11.6% to $86.9B, with open interest steady at $57.7B according to Coinglass. Rising volumes and open interest suggest short-term speculative positioning as traders hedge against downside risks.
Technical outlook
The daily chart (TradingView) shows ETH breaking below the Bollinger Bands midline at ~ $4,408. Momentum indicators remain weak:
- RSI sits at 34.5, near oversold territory.
- MACD shows continued bearish momentum.
- The 10-, 20-, and 50-day EMAs are currently acting as overhead resistance.
- Support sits near the 100-day EMA at $3,850, with the 200-day EMA at $3,392 as a deeper cushion.
Key resistance remains between $4,250 and $4,400. Without sustained buy support or ETF inflows, analysts caution ETH could retest $3,850 or lower in the near term.
Outlook
Ethereum is now 19% below its all-time high of $4,946. While short-term pressures from liquidations and ETF redemptions weigh heavily, analysts point to long-term on-chain trends, accumulation, exchange outflows, and staking, as potential foundations for a future rally.
Whether that rally materializes will depend on whether macro conditions stabilize and if U.S. ETF products see renewed institutional inflows.
Gunel Ismayilova
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