Fed Bets, Gemini IPO, Salus Tokenization, India Crypto Update

Traders on Polymarket are betting on a possible Federal Reserve rate cut, while crypto exchange Gemini has increased its IPO target to over $3 billion. Meanwhile, DeFi platform Salus is connecting the trade of critical minerals to the IOTA blockchain, and India continues to take a cautious, measured approach to regulating cryptocurrencies.

This week in crypto brings a mix of market activity, regulatory developments, and blockchain innovation.

But first, let’s see how Coins performed for this period.

Top Gainers and Losers

1. MemeCore (M) - gained an impressive 12.52% recently, to a total price of $2.22
2. Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) - right after it PENGU with a 9.85% and price of $0.03691
3. Pump.fun (PUMP) - in third place this week with 8,97% to a price of $0.006089

1. Four (FORM) - the biggest loss this week of 6.47% with end price of $2.85
2. Worldcoing (WLD) - followed by a WLD loss of 5.09%, total price of $1.63
3. Story (IP) - closing up with 3.29% loss and price of $9.77

Polymarket’s Top Trader Bets on 50bps Fed Cut as Market Eyes Smaller Move

A leading trader on decentralized prediction platform Polymarket is betting on a larger-than-expected rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The trader, known as JustWakingUp, has placed a $15,000 position on the Fed reducing its benchmark rate by 50 basis points at next week’s meeting. With nearly $400 million in trading volume and over $2 million in profits to date, the account is Polymarket’s most active, according to data from the Polymarket Whales X account. The position could return about $226,000 if successful.

Most of the market expects a smaller move. The CME FedWatch Tool assigns a 91% probability to a 25 bps cut. However, odds for a 50 bps reduction rose to nearly 10% following a weak August jobs report. BlackRock and Standard Chartered have also suggested the Fed may opt for a larger cut. The case was reinforced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which reported a downward revision of 911,000 jobs for the 12 months period from April 2024 to March 2025, the largest on record.

Traders now await this week’s PPI and CPI releases for further signals ahead of the decision.

Gemini Ups IPO to $433M, Targets $3B Valuation

Crypto exchange Gemini has lifted the pricing range for its initial public offering to $24–$26 per share, up from $17–$19, seeking a valuation above $3 billion. The move raises its fundraising target to $433 million from $317 million in the Sept. 2 filing with the SEC.

Nasdaq is backing the deal with a $50 million private placement for 2.11 million shares. Gemini reported $68.6 million in revenue for the period of 2024 and the first half of 2025, while net losses widened to $282.5 million. Trading volumes rose nearly 50% to $24.8 billion.

The upsized deal comes amid a strong appetite for crypto IPOs: Circle gained 167% on its NYSE debut, Bullish jumped 218% at listing, and Coinbase joined the S&P 500 in May. Kraken is reportedly eyeing a $15 billion valuation in its next raise.

Salus Brings Critical Minerals to IOTA Chain

DeFi platform Salus has launched on the IOTA network to tokenize exports of tantalum, a rare earth mineral, from Rwanda to the U.S. The initiative aims to connect decentralized finance with global trade, where a financing gap of about $2.5 trillion persists, according to UNCTAD.

By using smart contracts and stablecoins, Salus says it can provide on-chain funding and traceability for mineral supply chains.

“With smart contracts and stablecoins, we can fund minerals at source, on verifiable terms, with real delivery and traceability built in,” said Trevor Skidmore, Salus co-founder, in a press statement.

The company is targeting over $100 million in gross merchandise value by 2025, with expansion planned in Africa and Latin America.

The move comes as demand for critical minerals, key to EV batteries and renewable energy infrastructure continues to rise. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects demand for such minerals will double by 2040, while global supply chains face increased volatility from tariff disruptions.

Salus hopes that by giving U.S. investors access to tokenized mineral trade, without requiring direct mine ownership, new capital can be unlocked for this sector that has struggled with underfunding

India Maintains Limited Crypto Oversight Over Stability Concerns

India is unlikely to implement full cryptocurrency legislation, opting instead for partial oversight amid financial stability and payment system risks. A Reuters report cites an internal government document noting that regulating crypto could grant it legitimacy and risk systemic disruption, while a full ban would not stop peer-to-peer activity on decentralized exchanges.

Authorities are particularly cautious about stablecoins, which could fragment India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and disrupt mainstream payment systems. India had considered a private crypto ban in 2021 and a regulatory discussion paper in 2024 but deferred both initiatives, citing the need to review global regulatory developments.

Currently, global crypto exchanges can operate in India after registering with regulators and complying with anti-money-laundering rules. Domestic crypto holdings total roughly $4.5 billion, which authorities consider unlikely to pose systemic risks.

India’s cautious approach aligns with a global pattern of measured adoption, where regulators seek to balance innovation with financial stability, similar to trends in countries like Singapore and the U.S.

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