Bitcoin’s price fell sharply into the $102,000 range on Tuesday, deepening a slide from its 24-hour high above $107,000. The drop came even as traditional markets advanced on optimism surrounding the U.S. government reopening and President Donald Trump’s newly announced $2,000 “tariff dividend” proposal.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $104,636, hovering just above key psychological support at $99,000, according to TradingView data. The move marks another volatile session for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, demonstrating the ongoing tension between macro optimism and investor caution within digital asset markets.
The weakness in Bitcoin stands in contrast to the broader rebound in equities after the U.S. Senate ended a 41-day federal shutdown with a 60–40 vote late Monday. The decision allows government operations, including regulatory agencies, to resume and restores pay to federal workers. While equity investors welcomed the development, crypto traders appeared less convinced that fiscal reopening would provide a tailwind.
Tariff dividend fuels stimulus debate
Bitcoin’s latest pullback coincided with President Trump’s proposal to issue a $2,000 “tariff dividend” to American citizens. The plan, announced Sunday on Truth Social, promises to return “trillions of dollars” collected from global trade duties while helping pay down the nation’s $37 trillion debt.
Traditional markets initially rallied on hopes of renewed consumer spending but quickly moderated as analysts interpreted the measure as a new stimulus injection that could reignite inflationary pressures. The prospect of additional liquidity in an already overheated economy rattled some investors, triggering shifts between asset classes.
Where equities capitalized on easier liquidity expectations, Bitcoin lost ground as traders rotated back into traditional risk assets. The result: digital assets lagged behind even as the macro picture brightened.
Technical picture: Bitcoin caught between bulls and bears
Technically, Bitcoin remains range-bound, sandwiched between strong resistance levels and critical support. Analysts identify $99,000 as the key floor reinforced by the 55-week exponential moving average, while Fibonacci resistance sits near $109,400, with stronger selling pressure expected around $111,000.
A decisive breakout above $116,000 could renew bullish sentiment, targeting the upper boundary of a widening wedge formation around $129,000. On the downside, failure to hold current levels could push BTC toward $96,000 or even $93,000.
Institutional interest, however, continues to provide a stabilizing backdrop. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, disclosed a $49.9 million purchase of 487 BTC last week, lifting its holdings to over 641,000 BTC valued near $47.5 billion.
Analysts warn of a potential “fall season” for crypto
Against this backdrop, Morgan Stanley strategists have cautioned that Bitcoin has entered the “fall season” of its four-year cycle, a stage traditionally associated with profit-taking before a deeper downturn.
“We are in the fall season right now,” said Denny Galindo, investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “Fall is the time for harvest. So, it’s the time you want to take your gains. But the debate is how long this fall will last and when the next winter will start.”
The comments came after Bitcoin briefly dipped below $99,000, breaking its 365-day moving average, a sign many analysts interpret as confirmation of a technical bear market. CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno and Bitrue’s Andri Fauzan Adziima both noted that the breach signals weakening momentum.
On-chain data signals weakening participation
On-chain activity continues to show fatigue. According to blockchain analytics, the number of active Bitcoin addresses has been declining since early 2025, suggesting limited retail engagement despite high nominal prices. This divergence between network participation and price often hints at waning organic demand.
Institutional investors remain involved, though more cautiously. Michael Cyprys, managing director at Morgan Stanley Research, said,
“Some institutional investors view Bitcoin as digital gold or a macro hedge against inflation and monetary debasement.”
He added that regulatory clarity and ETF infrastructure have improved accessibility, boosting total U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF assets to over $137 billion.
Bitcoin’s path ahead: relief rally or renewed sell-off?
Following the shakeout, Bitcoin has attempted a modest recovery near $105,000, aided by dip-buying interest at the $100,000 demand zone. Yet, with the RSI still below 50 and major moving averages now acting as dynamic resistance, analysts describe the move as a potential relief rally rather than a confirmed reversal.
If buyers reclaim the $110,000 order block with sustained volume, BTC could test $114,000 again. Conversely, rejection from this zone would likely return price action to the $100,000 level or lower.
Macro-level crosscurrents, including renewed fiscal stimulus speculation, shifting equity flows, and muted ETF inflows, could determine Bitcoin’s next leg. While Bitcoin’s long-term scarcity narrative remains intact, its short-term outlook leans cautious amid the evolving policy and liquidity backdrop.
Oleksii Shumak
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