The crypto market is experiencing a significant event today, with $3.29 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options set to expire. This expiry is expected to influence short-term price movements and overall market volatility.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiration Overview

The bulk of these expiring options belong to Bitcoin, totaling $2.88 billion, while Ethereum options account for $417 million. According to Deribit, 35,176 BTC options contracts are set to expire, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.74. This ratio suggests a generally bullish market sentiment, despite Bitcoin’s recent dip from the $90,000 mark. Additionally, the max pain point for BTC stands at $86,000, indicating a potential price pullback toward this level.

On the Ethereum side, 220,301 options contracts are expiring, down slightly from last week’s 223,395 contracts. The put-to-call ratio for ETH sits at 0.69, with a max pain point of $2,100. This level could act as a magnet for short-term price movement as traders adjust their positions.

As the expiration time approaches at 08:00 UTC, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are likely to move toward their respective max pain points. This is in line with the Max Pain theory, which suggests that as options near expiry, asset prices tend to shift toward levels that render the most contracts worthless, benefiting option sellers.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $81,992, while Ethereum is priced at $1,891. Given these figures, a short-term price recovery may occur as institutional and retail traders adjust their strategies to match the market’s equilibrium.

Short-Term Market Sentiment and Analyst Insights

Despite recent positive U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, short-term market sentiment remains bearish, according to analysts at Greeks.live. Some traders anticipate further downside, with Bitcoin potentially testing support near the $60,000 mark.

Market uncertainty is further fueled by geopolitical and economic factors. While some analysts believe that peace talks in Ukraine could boost investor confidence, others argue that U.S. inflation and tariffs under the Trump administration are the dominant forces shaping market behavior. A JPMorgan survey backs this view, with 51% of traders identifying tariffs and inflation as key market movers for 2025.

According to crypto market analyst Tony Stewart, options traders have been adjusting their strategies in response to recent price fluctuations. The March 11 price drop to $76,500 saw put buyers and call sellers profiting, while heavy call selling above $90,000 limited Bitcoin’s recovery.

Traders are now shifting from aggressive March and June call positions to more conservative April and May options, reflecting a reassessment of market volatility. This shift suggests that investors are becoming more cautious about near-term price action and adjusting their hedging strategies accordingly.

With the expiration of these options, Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to experience heightened volatility. However, once the 08:00 UTC expiration settles, market pressure could ease. Whether BTC and ETH will break out of their current trading ranges or face renewed selling pressure depends on broader market conditions and trader sentiment in the coming days.

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