American entrepreneur and investor Kevin O’Leary continued to challenge market expectations around a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. His latest comments added to the ongoing debate among traders who track monetary policy’s influence on Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies.
O’Leary, known for his role on “Shark Tank,” stated in a Cointelegraph interview that he remains skeptical of a December cut. He said he does not see a meaningful link between near-term policy decisions and Bitcoin’s short-term price action. His remarks contrast sharply with current market positioning, which reflects a strong belief in imminent easing.
O’Leary rejects December cut probability
“I don’t actually think the Fed’s gonna cut in December,” O’Leary stated. “I’m not investing that way. I’m not investing as if the Fed is going to cut rates. So I just don’t see it,” he said.
The investor added that Bitcoin would likely remain stable regardless of what the Federal Reserve decides. “I think it’s going to sort of drift within 5% of where it is now, in either direction,” O’Leary said. He noted a lack of strong catalysts that could shift Bitcoin out of its current range.
His position stands in contrast to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, which assigns an 88% to 89% probability to a December rate cut, depending on the specific dataset referenced. The rapid climb in expectations represents a notable reversal from late November, when projected odds briefly fell to 33%.
Inflation concerns shape O’Leary’s stance
O’Leary said inflation remains the primary reason the central bank may refuse to ease policy. He pointed to the latest data, which shows U.S. annual inflation at 3% in September, the highest level since January.
“It’s a dual mandate, full employment and inflation. And so the tariffs are starting to take hold and input costs,” O’Leary said.
These factors keep him cautious and place him outside the majority of traders who expect a December cut. O’Leary maintains that he sees no clear relationship between a short-term rate decision and Bitcoin’s immediate market direction.
Rate-cut expectations swing sharply before December meeting
Market expectations around the December decision have shown high volatility. On Nov. 19, probability of a cut fell from 67% earlier in the month to 33%. Sentiment reversed only days later after New York Fed President John Williams told reporters that the central bank could cut rates “in the near term” without compromising its progress on inflation. Bloomberg analyst Joe Weisenthal linked the surge in cut expectations to Williams’ comments.
These comments from NY Fed President Williams have massively increased the odds of a December rate cut. https://t.co/JlCEUbnpA5 pic.twitter.com/Z5lXSglZVP
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) November 21, 2025
The Federal Reserve already completed two rate cuts this year in September and November. These moves encouraged traders to anticipate further easing through the end of 2025.
Bitcoin trades sideways as O’Leary forecasts limited movement
Bitcoin has declined between 14% and 17% during the past month, depending on data source. Price currently trades around the low-to-mid $91,000 range. Daily performance includes an 8% jump within the last 24 hours that pushed Bitcoin near $92,700 before slight retracement.
O’Leary reiterated that he does not expect Bitcoin to break out aggressively in either direction. “I don’t see it negatively affecting Bitcoin,” he said, dismissing concerns that an unexpected rate hold could destabilize the market.
I like to own the infrastructure as well as the assets. If you're gonna own Bitcoin, back then, why wouldn't you own the entity that mines Bitcoin? But really, Bitzero, has changed so much since my original investment. It's a power company. It's agnostic to who uses its power.… pic.twitter.com/TXqHUDs4Gh
— Kevin O'Leary aka Mr. Wonderful (@kevinolearytv) December 2, 2025
Recent chart action shows Bitcoin emerging from a bearish channel that dominated October and November. The decline carried price into a demand area between $86,000 and $90,000, according to TradingView data. Buyers responded at these levels and price now sits above recent lows. Analysts note that Bitcoin trades below the 50-day SMA near $100,579 and the 200-day SMA near $109,504. These levels remain the next major barriers.
O’Leary says altcoins fail to recover in current cycle
In a separate comment, O’Leary said that altcoins no longer rebound after corrections. He argued that investors only benefit from Bitcoin and Ethereum.
“If you own those two, it doesn’t matter what happens anywhere else because everything else is moving with a much higher [volume] to the downside and not recovering anymore because they have no use case,” he said.
O’Leary advised followers not to chase “irrelevant tokens” and said recent corrections show a clear divide between blue-chip cryptocurrencies and the rest of the market.
Anastasiia G
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