Why Arthur Hayes Thinks Bitcoin is Set for a Rally

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is stirring up controversy and optimism in equal measure. The outspoken billionaire investor has made it clear that he “loves tariffs” – apparently, he believes that the economic pain caused by printed money is precisely what Bitcoin needs to soar. In his latest X post on April 5, 2025, Hayes boldly claimed that rising global imbalances, corrected with a dose of freshly printed cash, are on the horizon—and that is, in his view, good news for BTC.

Tariffs and Their Ripple Effects

On April 2, President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing a 10% baseline tariff on all imports from all countries. But the tariffs don’t stop there; more severe levies are set to kick in on April 9 for major trading partners – China faces an astronomical 34% tariff, the European Union will be hit with 20%, and Japan with 24%. While many investors are running scared, Arthur Hayes is practically throwing a party: “Some of y’all are running scared, but I LOVE TARIFFS,” he exclaimed in his post. He argues that these tariffs will weaken the US Dollar Index (DXY), as overseas investors sell US stocks to “bring money home.”

The impact, Hayes believes, is already visible. The Nasdaq 100 shattered records on April 2 when it lost 1060 points in one day – almost 1.5% away from triggering the first circuit breaker since March 2020. Such volatility, he contends, sets the stage for stronger performance from traditional safe havens like gold and for a significant rally in Bitcoin over the medium term. With Bitcoin currently trading at $83,033, Hayes foresees the potential for a dramatic swing: if the tariffs push the market into further uncertainty, Bitcoin could dip to as low as $73,000 before an eventual bounce brings it soaring once more—and perhaps even onto the path toward a $1 million dream.

US-China Trade Tensions are A Catalyst for Bitcoin’s Ascent

Hayes didn’t stop at domestic tariffs. In another notable X post, he linked the fallout from the ongoing US-China trade war to Bitcoin’s long-term potential. He speculated that with Trump’s aggressive stance, the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Chinese Yuan (USDCNY) could climb as high as 10.00. “There is no way that Xi Jinping will agree to change China in the ways necessary to placate Trump. This is the super bazooka BTC needs to ascend rapidly toward $1 million,” Hayes wrote.

He pointed to historical precedents—back in May 2019, after Trump imposed tariffs on China and China retaliated, stocks plunged while Bitcoin rallied from $3,500 in early 2019 to nearly $13,800 by June.

“CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED – THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

According to Hayes, that period highlighted Bitcoin's role as a safe-haven asset in times of economic uncertainty, much like gold. With fresh tariffs and the likelihood of further retaliatory actions, the global demand for neutral assets such as Bitcoin might surge as countries and investors look for alternatives to a weakening dollar and uncertain equity markets.

A Perfect Storm of Regulatory and Economic Conditions

Hayes also emphasized that “printed money pain” – a consequence of governments resorting to excess money printing to mitigate trade imbalances – can ultimately benefit Bitcoin. Such monetary policies tend to devalue fiat currencies, pushing investors in search of alternatives. This, Hayes explains, could lead to a medium-term bullish trend for BTC.

He noted an interesting dynamic: while US business sentiment is taking a hit—with the Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS) sitting under 15 for the first time since the start of 2024—this very uncertainty could be the catalyst for a new rally in Bitcoin. According to Hayes, the weak business outlook, paired with a falling 2-year Treasury yield (which has “dumped” following the tariff announcements), signals potential for the Federal Reserve to eventually ease policies, potentially restarting quantitative easing (QE). Extending more liquidity into the market would, in theory, make riskier assets like Bitcoin even more attractive.

Analysts like Jeff Park, head of alpha strategies at Bitwise Invest, have echoed similar sentiments in the past. Park once warned that in a “world of weaker dollar and weaker US rates… risk assets in the US will fly through the roof beyond your wildest imagination.” With tariffs and trade tensions reshuffling market dynamics, it appears that the crypto sector could stand to gain from the uncertainties plaguing traditional finance.

A New Narrative for Bitcoin

The narrative that Hayes is crafting is both provocative and optimistic. While the immediate impact of tariffs and trade disputes may drive short-term volatility, the underlying message is clear: Bitcoin’s enduring appeal as a decentralized, non-government-controlled asset is about to be reinforced. Whether or not the price hits $73,000 or soars above $91,000 as a bullish signal remains to be seen, but one thing is evident—global economic shifts, induced by trade policies and monetary interventions, are setting the stage for Bitcoin to potentially redefine its market trajectory.

Time will ultimately reveal whether Arthur Hayes’ bold predictions will come true. For now, Bitcoin investors and market watchers alike are left to navigate a complex mix of regulatory maneuvers, trade tensions, and fiscal policies. As the US and China continue their trade tug-of-war, and as printed money begins to erode fiat currency value, Bitcoin’s appeal as a safe haven may well be on the rise.

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