For years, Bitcoin’s price movements followed a predictable halving cycle—supply cuts led to price surges. However, analysts now find that this pattern may no longer hold. The fourth halving cycle shows a significant deviation, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price growth is now influenced by broader economic forces rather than just supply reductions.

According to data from Ecoinometrics, Bitcoin’s current growth rate is much lower than in previous cycles. If Bitcoin had followed past patterns, its price would be somewhere between $140,000 and $4,500,000, given its starting point at $63,000. Instead, Bitcoin is currently trading at around $80,000—far below expectations.

So, what’s changed? Analysts point to weak demand, shifting macroeconomic conditions, and evolving investor behavior as key factors reshaping Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

Also, CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin’s apparent demand—measuring how much of the new supply is absorbed by active buyers—has dropped to its lowest level in over a year. This suggests that despite the halving reducing supply, there isn’t enough new capital inflow to drive prices higher.

Additionally, CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin PnL Index Cyclical Signals, a metric that tracks major market trends, signals that the Bitcoin bull cycle has ended. Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, predicts that Bitcoin may enter a 6 to 12-month period of sideways or bearish price action.

This is a major shift from previous cycles, where demand surged post-halving and drove exponential price increases. Without strong investor interest, Bitcoin’s price is struggling to gain momentum despite the halving’s impact on supply.

Macroeconomic Factors Take the Lead

Another key difference in this cycle is macroeconomic policy. In previous bull runs, Bitcoin benefited from expansionary monetary policies, with central banks injecting liquidity into markets. This fueled risk-on sentiment, boosting assets like Bitcoin.

However, this time is different.

  • Central banks are either tightening or maintaining neutral policies, removing the liquidity boost that previously helped Bitcoin grow.
  • Interest rates remain relatively high, making traditional investments like bonds and money market funds more attractive than speculative assets.

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, believes this flat monetary cycle has held Bitcoin back. However, he notes that US liquidity might be bottoming out, hinting at a potential reversal. If central banks ease policies in response to economic stressors, Bitcoin could see renewed momentum.

A New Phase for Bitcoin

The halving cycle was once the most important driver of Bitcoin’s price, but current data suggests a different reality.

Weak demand has limited price growth, while macroeconomic conditions now play a larger role than supply reduction. Institutional capital flows and monetary policies will likely dictate Bitcoin’s price trends moving forward.

While Bitcoin’s price action no longer follows the halving cycle, it may now be entering a phase where global economic trends and institutional strategies shape its long-term direction. Investors and traders must adapt to this new market dynamic, where past patterns offer fewer clues about the future.

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