In its August capital markets assumptions report, Bitwise, managing over $15 billion in assets, framed this as their base case scenario. The projection points to a wild 28.3% annualized growth rate from today’s $112,000 level. If the stars align, Bitcoin’s market cap could soar to nearly $28 trillion, more than twice the current value of the entire global gold market. And that's just the base case. Bitwise also explores a bull case of $3 million per coin and a bear case of $88,000.
As bold as this sounds, the report shows that institutions are slowly starting to see Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class, moving past the "wild speculation" phase.
Why Bitcoin’s Price Could Keep Soaring
Three key drivers are pushing Bitcoin’s price higher. First, institutional adoption is off the charts. Since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, institutional inflows have ramped up, with institutions now handling over 75% of trading volume. Bitwise notes that demand is outpacing supply by six times, with corporate treasuries, pensions, and sovereign funds all looking to integrate Bitcoin into their portfolios.
Next up: the global search for inflation hedges. With U.S. debt levels soaring and fiat currencies losing value, more investors are turning to hard assets. Bitwise highlights that $10,000 in U.S. dollars from 2015 is now worth around 40% less. Bitcoin, with its finite supply and portability, is looking like a gold 2.0.
Lastly, Bitcoin’s fixed issuance schedule adds another layer of scarcity. With less than 1.1 million coins left to mine and a halved reward rate of just 450 BTC per day, Bitcoin’s supply is getting tighter, and that’s pushing the price higher. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, sums it up:
“Inelastic supply is the single most important force behind Bitcoin’s future.”
But Wait, Are There Risks?
Bitwise isn’t ignoring the risks. Regulatory changes are still a huge question mark, especially around custody laws, taxes, and access to ETFs. Plus, macroeconomic shocks could slow down adoption. From technological advancements to liquidity crises, there are plenty of bumps along the way. And while volatility has calmed down, Bitwise still expects regular 30-60% drawdowns.
That said, Bitwise’s long-term outlook is optimistic. Bitcoin is moving from the speculative fringe into the heart of global portfolios. If their forecast is right, we might just see Bitcoin compete with gold and U.S. Treasuries as a mainstream store of value in the next decade.
Gunel Ismayilova
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