With less than two weeks until October, often dubbed “Uptober” for Bitcoin’s historically strong performance, crypto traders are split on whether the trend will hold this year.
On Monday, the cryptocurrency market lost $80 billion in value, pulling Bitcoin down toward $112,000 and Ether below $4,200. The sell-off followed muted enthusiasm after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut, as traders reassessed macro conditions.
October’s track record
Data from analytics platform CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin has closed higher in 10 of the past 12 Octobers, most notably:
- 2017: +48%
- 2021: +40%
Excluding 2018’s mild 3.8% drop, the month has historically been reliable for bulls. At current levels near $112,500, a similar surge to previous bull years would place Bitcoin around $160,000-$165,000 by month’s end.
Why bulls remain hopeful
Bitcoiner Kyle Chassé highlighted CME futures showing a 91% chance of another Fed cut next month. “Liquidity is the fuel that Bitcoin and crypto thrive on,” he noted.
Rate cut odds keep climbing.
— Kyle Chassé / DD🐸 (@kyle_chasse) September 22, 2025
Markets now see a 91.1% probability the Fed cuts rates by 25bps in October.
Translation: the easing cycle is basically priced in.
Liquidity is on the way...
And that’s the fuel Bitcoin and crypto thrive on.
Analyst Sykodelic suggested prices could dip toward $112,500 before breaking to new highs: “After that, it’s on to euphoria.”
Lower is coming.
— Sykodelic 🔪 (@Sykodelic_) September 22, 2025
But then mucuuccuucchchhh higher sers.
And you can then breathe a sigh of relief because you wont have to bend over your wifes bf.
It's ok...
Syko has got you 😉
In all seriousness, as Ive been saying for a wee while, $112.5k is the number and when we get… https://t.co/TZoZF7WyTp pic.twitter.com/vQpXGZkAQe
Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, argued that once the U.S. Treasury rebuilds its cash balance (> $850B), pressure from liquidity drains will ease, allowing risk assets to return to “up only mode.”
Why some see headwinds
Not everyone is convinced “Uptober” will repeat:
- Volatility limits: Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, said crypto faces “extremely low implied volatility, weakening inflows, and profit takers still waiting to sell.”
- Macro caution: BTSE COO Jeff Mei argued, “The Uptober trend is less likely this year given macro uncertainty and the fact September hasn’t been sharply negative.”
- Neutral positioning: On-chain research shows long-term holders remain steady, while short-term traders wait for confirmation above $124,000 (BTC) before calling the next leg up, according to Rachael Lucas of BTC Markets.
Market structure
- Total crypto market cap: $3.84T, down from $3.99T. Losing $3.89T support could open further losses; reclaiming $4T would stabilize momentum (TradingView data).
- Altcoins: XRP dropped 5.88% to $2.81, Solana slid 7.1% to $221, and meme coin SPX plunged 12.8% in the heaviest decline among major tokens.
- Macro link: Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that rate decisions will be “meeting by meeting,” dampening hopes for rapid monetary easing.
Why 2025’s Uptober may differ
While past Octobers have been statistically favorable, this year’s setup differs in two key respects:
- Macro climate: Unlike 2017/2021, today’s Fed is moving cautiously. CME shows high odds for one further cut, but no signal of aggressive stimulus. Limited easing means weaker liquidity tailwinds.
- Market maturity: ETF approvals in the U.S. and Europe have changed Bitcoin’s investor mix. Institutional flows may temper volatility but also compress seasonality patterns like Uptober that retail traders leaned on.
This suggests October 2025 could deliver growth, but perhaps at a slower pace than fans of “Uptober” expect.
Looking ahead
The tug-of-war continues between bullish liquidity expectations and bearish macro caution. Analysts agree that clearer catalysts, such as new spot Bitcoin ETFs gaining traction, stronger Fed easing, or sovereign adoption headlines, will determine whether Bitcoin revisits highs in October or enters a quieter consolidation phase.
Tanya Petrusenko
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