According to crypto market intelligence firm 10x Research, Bitcoin has become increasingly out of reach for average investors.
In a report published Tuesday, the company argued that this growing inaccessibility could threaten predictions of an extended bull market. The firm emphasized that drawing strict statistical conclusions from Bitcoin’s relatively short 16-year history, covering only three or four market cycles, is inherently risky.
“Bitcoin is suffering from diminishing returns,” 10x Research noted.
Diminishing returns and market cycle uncertainty
Bitcoin’s rising price and declining returns are creating challenges for retail investors, prompting renewed debate about whether the current crypto bull market can sustain its momentum beyond the traditional four-year cycle.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price cycles have followed an approximately four-year rhythm, often coinciding with network halvings that reduce new supply. This cyclical behavior has underpinned forecasts of extended bull runs. However, as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, fewer retail investors can participate meaningfully, potentially slowing the momentum needed to sustain long-term price growth.
“While many view this as a natural sign of maturity, it raises deeper questions about the validity of the so-called Bitcoin cycle theory.”
10x Research also questioned widely cited models such as the stock-to-flow framework, which has been used to forecast dramatic price surges.
“The stock-to-flow model lost credibility after failing to track prices accurately in 2021,” the report explained, citing the model’s overemphasis on supply while overlooking demand dynamics.
Yet, the firm noted that a modified version of this methodology successfully anticipated the bear-market bottom in October 2022, demonstrating the importance of adapting models to evolving market realities.
Price forecasts
Despite some forecasts pointing to Bitcoin prices as high as $1 million, 10x Research has projected a more conservative cycle top near $125,000 by the end of the year. This forecast is based on the firm’s updated approach to Bitcoin cycle dynamics, which incorporates diminishing returns and changing retail participation.
By contrast, other analysts remain more bullish. Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, predicted a Bitcoin price of $200,000 by the end of 2025, suggesting that recent market disruptions, including a $19 billion liquidation event, could present buying opportunities.
Kendrick further projected that Bitcoin might reach $500,000 by 2028, coinciding with the potential conclusion of former President Trump’s second term.
Smart money trends
Data from Nansen, a blockchain intelligence platform, indicates that the market’s most successful traders often referred to as “smart money” are increasingly seeking Bitcoin exposure. Binance-native Bitcoin (BTCB) ranked as the 11th most-held token among these traders, following more speculative holdings such as memecoins like Pump.fun (PUMP) and Pepe (PEPE). There is a trend of growing divergence between retail accessibility and institutional or high-net-worth activity in the crypto market.
This situation presents a complex picture for Bitcoin enthusiasts.
While the cryptocurrency’s maturation and rising price reflect a robust asset class moving beyond early speculative phases, the shrinking pool of retail buyers could constrain broader market participation and influence the trajectory of the current cycle.
As the market grows, careful analysis, diversified exposure, and awareness of cyclical patterns remain critical, Bitcoin continues to attract institutional attention and smart money positioning, retail participants may need to reconsider traditional strategies that rely on widespread market adoption to drive prices upward. 10x Research’s report ultimately means the importance of tempering expectations, recognizing the limitations of historical models, and appreciating that Bitcoin’s market dynamics are far from static.
Is the bitcoin cycle theory breaking down?
The doubts raised by 10x Research echo a growing sentiment across the industry that Bitcoin’s historical “four-year cycle” may no longer apply. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently argued that the traditional cycle framework has lost much of its relevance. According to Ju, the old cycle model, once driven by retail enthusiasm and halving events, no longer captures the dynamics of a market dominated by long-term holders, corporate treasuries, and ETFs.
He noted that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a macro asset rather than a speculative instrument, making its performance less dependent on predictable retail-driven cycles.
This shift aligns with the concerns voiced by 10x Research: if retail participation continues to fade, the feedback loop that once fueled parabolic rallies could weaken. As capital consolidates among institutional players, volatility may diminish, but so might the explosive growth that characterized Bitcoin’s earlier bull runs.
For now, the conversation around affordability and diminishing returns may shape not just price predictions but the broader understanding of Bitcoin as a maturing financial asset.
Matvii Diadkov
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