Bitcoin temporarily broke $99,000 in the first few minutes of trading on Thursday morning, its highest since February. This came after a surge driven by President Trump's suggestion of a possible global trade deal with the UK.
The digital giant is now looking at its March record and is headed towards reaching $100,000. It’s up 2.6% after briefly retreating from a daily high above $94,000.
Trump’s Trade Deal Tease
Trump’s late Wednesday post on Truth Social, claiming a “MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY,” had crypto traders buzzing. The big deal? Britain.
According to sources from The New York Times, this could mark a major diplomatic win after months of tariff drama under Trump’s “Liberation Day” agenda.
Under the current U.S. tariff regime, the UK has been hit with a 10% general tariff and a hefty 25% levy on steel, aluminum, and autos. The UK is pushing for some relief, and this trade agreement might just be the answer. In exchange, Britain could ease up on digital services taxes and tariffs on U.S. agricultural products.
Fed’s Impact on Bitcoin Rally
Bitcoin’s price bump came after a positive Federal Reserve update earlier in the day, which saw stocks, including the S&P 500 and Dow, rise modestly by just under 1%. While confirming the rate pause at 4.25%–4.50%, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged “heightened uncertainty” but reassured that “the economy is still in a solid position.”
Analysts Weigh In on the Rally
Aurelie Barthere, principal analyst at Nansen, an on-chain analytics platform, told Decrypt that Trump’s recent statements, alongside comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, suggested tariff escalation might not be as harsh as expected. Traders are now treating Trump’s administration as a “backstop for risk,” with markets appearing to believe in a “Trump put” under equities, Treasuries, and crypto.
However, Barthere cautioned that the rally still needs some validation, especially as trade talks with China continue. “We’ve priced in scenario one,” she said, with Nansen forecasting a 55% chance Bitcoin will gradually reach new all-time highs. But the bullish momentum is now “less asymmetric,” meaning there’s not as much room for a surprise upside.
Bitcoin as a Diversifier, Not a Safe Haven
Marcin Kazmierczak, COO and co-founder of RedStone, a modular oracle, took a broader view, noting Bitcoin’s variable correlation with traditional markets over the past year.
“Bitcoin’s relationship with the S&P 500 has fluctuated between approximately -0.2 and 0.4,” Kazmierczak said. “This puts Bitcoin firmly in the ‘diversifier’ category, not a true ‘safe haven,’” as it doesn’t always move in the opposite direction of stocks during downturns.
In its latest outlook, Nansen warned that market sentiment may be “getting ahead of fundamentals.” The report pointed to a sharp drop in the equity risk premium, now below 3%, suggesting traders are “underpricing downside risks” despite weak consumption data, stalled trade talks with China, and rising core services inflation.
HODL Team
Disclaimer: All materials on this site are for informational purposes only. None of the material should be interpreted as investment advice. Please note that despite the nature of much of the material created and hosted on this website, HODL FM is not a financial reference resource, and the opinions of authors and other contributors are their own and should not be taken as financial advice. If you require advice of this sort, HODL FM strongly recommends contacting a qualified industry professional.
