Bitcoin could fall to around $72,000 within the next one or two months if the $100,000 support fails to hold, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.
On Tuesday afternoon, bitcoin briefly dropped below $100,000 for the first time since June, trading near $100,800 at the time of publication, a 5.2% decline in 24 hours. Broader crypto markets also weakened, with the GMCI 30 index down over 9% in the same period.
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, spoke on this:
“if the price doesn’t manage to hold the ~$100,000 area and breaks downwards, there are higher risks of targeting $72,000 in a one- to two-month period.”
Demand continues to weaken after october’s liquidation event
Moreno said the drop reflects ongoing weakness in demand after the Oct. 10 liquidation event, the largest in crypto history, which erased more than $20 billion in leveraged positions.
“Since then, spot demand for bitcoin has been contracting,” he said. “In the U.S., investors have also lowered their demand for bitcoin, as seen in negative ETF flows and a negative Coinbase price premium.”
CryptoQuant’s internal “Bull Score Index” currently stands at 20, a range that indicates bearish conditions since early October.
Analysts weigh in on market sentiment
Last month, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, predicted that bitcoin’s slide below $100,000 appeared “inevitable” following the liquidation event. He had previously said bitcoin might “never go below $100,000 again” if macro factors such as U.S.–China trade talks improved through late October.
The price ultimately broke lower, although outside his projected timeframe.
Gerry O’Shea, head of global market insights at Hashdex, said broader risk-off sentiment across equities, credit markets, and commodities has also weighed on bitcoin.
“Recent speculation that the FOMC may pass on another rate cut this year, as well as concerns over tariffs, credit market conditions, and equity valuations, helped drive markets lower,” O’Shea noted.
He added that some selling pressure has come from long-term holders, calling it an expected behavior as the asset matures.
Despite the correction, the long-term investment case for bitcoin remains stable.
“The trend for ETF flows and corporate adoption this year remains very strong as traditional financial institutions continue to build digital asset infrastructure,” he said.
“These structural factors, along with the potential for increased liquidity as the Fed ends quantitative tightening, support our view that BTC may reach a new all-time high in the coming months.”
Long-term market view
The bearish sentiment highlighted by CryptoQuant seems to be mirrored in broader market behavior. Retail participation, which often serves as a catalyst during bullish phases, has noticeably weakened.
With fewer new entrants and lower spot demand, the market’s liquidity profile appears to be shifting toward institutional dominance.
Adding to the pressure, Bitcoin miners long considered the backbone of network stability have begun to offload portions of their holdings. On-chain data indicates a steady increase in miner-to-exchange transfers, suggesting that operational costs and shrinking margins are prompting some to realize profits while prices remain high. This behavior often precedes or amplifies downward corrections, particularly when combined with weakening retail demand.
Matvii Diadkov
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