Bitcoin is in the middle of a dramatic tug-of-war, with profit-taking whales on one side and long-term holders on the other. The stakes? Well, the fate of the market for the next few months. After hitting a jaw-dropping record of $123,300 on July 14, Bitcoin has taken a breather, drifting lower while waiting for a new catalyst to push it forward.
According to CryptoQuant, this pullback marks the third major wave of whale profit-taking since mid-2024. That's right, whales are back to selling, but this time it's both old and new players in the game, as confirmed by Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Derive. As usual, when whales move, the price of assets follows, and Bitcoin is no exception.
But don’t blame it all on the whales. Miners, who tend to hold huge amounts of Bitcoin, sold about 15,000 BTC right after Bitcoin hit that record high. Big moves like this typically point to institutions making moves to lock in their profits and de-risk before a potentially rough third quarter. Hey, when you're sitting on a big pile of Bitcoin, why not take some profits, right?
Will Bitcoin Recover? Analysts Eye the Fourth Quarter for Gains
This "cooling phase" is a typical trait of a mature bull market. Historically, the third quarter tends to bring minimal returns, so it's not all that surprising. Dawson suggests that options traders are bracing for a bumpy ride, loading up on put options at $80,000, $95,000, and $100,000 for August and September. Looks like they're expecting a 10-30% price dip in the next month.
But wait, before you start panicking, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Fund, isn’t having any of this short-term bearish talk. He argues Bitcoin is "undervalued" based on his Energy Value model, which connects Bitcoin's value to the energy used by its mining network. According to Edwards, Bitcoin is trading well below its intrinsic worth. Hmm, maybe there’s more to the story than just a market dip.
CryptoQuant, for its part, sees a potential resurgence. They’re expecting “renewed accumulation” and a “subsequent breakout to a new all-time high,” particularly in the fourth quarter. Historically, the fourth quarter has been Bitcoin’s golden hour, delivering median returns of 52%. So, if you're holding on, you might just be in for a nice surprise.
Roman Zaika
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