Bitcoin is trading near $95,500, struggling to stabilize after a steep decline that wiped out recent gains and pushed the leading cryptocurrency toward a crucial psychological level. According to data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin touched an intraday low of $93,029, marking its lowest point since April and a fall of about 25% from its October all-time high of $126,296.
The recent slide comes as broader risk markets, including tech stocks and crypto-linked equities, face renewed pressure amid shifting U.S. economic expectations. Investors remain uncertain about the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision, and odds of a rate cut in December have fallen sharply.
The CME FedWatch Tool now places the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at roughly 44%, down from more than 80% at the start of November. This sudden shift has triggered a wave of risk-off sentiment, contributing to the sharp Bitcoin correction seen in recent sessions.
A combination of macro and technical pressures
Bitcoin’s market dominance has slipped to 59.37%, down from 65.71% in June, signaling that capital has been rotating out of BTC toward other digital assets and stablecoins. At the same time, the Stochastic RSI has flashed a bearish crossover, indicating waning bullish momentum.
This combination of weakening dominance and technical divergence, the so-called bearish RSI crossover, often precedes deeper corrections or prolonged consolidation periods. With BTC trading close to the key $94,000–$95,000 zone, traders are now debating whether the digital asset can hold support or continue sliding toward $90,000.
Adding to the uncertainty, Bitcoin’s price chart recently broke below a head and shoulders formation, which points to a potential 13.6% decline that could bring the price to around $89,407. The appearance of such a pattern often acts as confirmation of bearish sentiment in the short term.
Selling pressure and whale activity increase
Recent data from CryptoQuant show long-term Bitcoin holders have sold an estimated 815,000 BTC over the past 30 days, the largest move since early 2024. Analysts attribute this behavior to late-cycle profit-taking rather than panic selling, consistent with previous bull market phases.
Glassnode analysts said that the so-called “OG Whales Dumping” narrative is often overstated, explaining that it reflects normal market distribution during a maturing bull cycle:
“This steady rise reflects increasing distribution pressure from older investor cohorts — a pattern typical of late-cycle profit-taking, not a sudden exodus of whales.”
Still, these sales have added to spot market pressure at a time when U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have recorded more than $2.3 billion in outflows over the past two weeks, according to SoSoValue. The withdrawals have reduced market liquidity and intensified selling momentum.
In derivatives markets, around $243 million in Bitcoin futures positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for more than half. Such liquidation events often cause cascading sell orders as leveraged traders are forced to close positions.
Technical signals turn bearish
Bitcoin’s technical indicators have continued to weaken. The daily chart confirmed a death cross, a bearish pattern formed when the 50-day moving average slides below the 200-day moving average. Historically, this setup has preceded extended bouts of downside pressure.
The Aroon Up indicator currently reads 92.86%, while the Aroon Down sits near 0%, showing that bears remain firmly in control of market direction. The $93,770–$94,000 range now represents a critical support zone; a close below it could trigger a move toward $90,000 or even lower.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score, a measure of how far the market value deviates from its realized value, has dropped to a 14-month low, signaling undervaluation. Historically, such levels have marked periods when long-term investors begin to accumulate, often preceding price recoveries.
Market outlook: accumulation or deeper correction?
Despite widespread bearish sentiment, several analysts point to underlying strength in the Bitcoin market. JPMorgan estimates that the average production cost of mining Bitcoin currently sits around $95,528, a level that has historically acted as strong downside support. With BTC now hovering near that threshold, some traders view this as a potential floor for accumulation.
If fresh demand enters at these undervalued levels, Bitcoin could stage a recovery above $100,000, invalidating the bearish head and shoulders pattern and restoring bullish momentum. Otherwise, sustained selling pressure and weak ETF inflows could push the price toward $90,000–$89,000 in the near term.
For now, Bitcoin remains trapped between competing forces: macroeconomic uncertainty, technical exhaustion, and potential long-term accumulation. Whether bulls or bears prevail will likely hinge on the market’s reaction to these critical support levels in the days ahead.
Gunel Ismayilova
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