Bitcoin might be feeling a little pressure again, this time from its biggest holders. On July 17th, wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC (aka the whales) and those with over 10,000 BTC (the mega whales) decided to shake things up by moving around 50,200 BTC onto exchanges. At current prices of around $119,000, that’s $6 billion in potential sell-side liquidity.
Historically, large inflow clusters like this one have been a red flag, signaling that price corrections are on the way. Back on July 7th, when 2,500 BTC were deposited onto exchanges, Bitcoin’s price dipped by $947, from $109,216 to $108,269. Then, around July 14-15, another whale inflow saw a 1.7% dip. And now, with the largest whale activity in over a month, we’re seeing renewed distribution pressure, right as Bitcoin seems to be struggling near its highs. Something smells fishy… and it might be more than just the whales.
Retail Sentiment Flashes Caution Too
But it’s not just the whales causing trouble; retail traders are getting in on the action too. The short-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures whether newer BTC wallets are selling at a profit, spiked to 1.05 on July 16, marking the highest level in over a month. A SOPR above 1 means that, on average, holders are pocketing some profits. Since then, it’s dipped slightly to 1.02, but it’s still hanging around elevated levels. For those of you keeping track, similar spikes in late June led to mild pullbacks, so maybe a similar move is coming.
Check this out: when the SOPR line crosses above the price line (like it did on July 16), Bitcoin usually sees a price dip. Oh, and look at that, guess what happened on July 16? You got it, a little dip in the price action. Coincidence? I think not.
A 3% Dip Looks Likely
Now, let’s talk numbers. Bitcoin is currently trading between $117,293 and $123,203, with the latter being a previous high. Despite that all-time high earlier this month, Bitcoin’s price has only climbed 2% this week, while altcoins have been off to the races with double-digit gains. So, what’s Bitcoin doing? Just waiting for a decisive move. Who’s going to blink first?
In the past, whale inflows have been a precursor to a dip. On June 15th, 33,663 BTC moved into exchanges, and Bitcoin’s price dropped by 1.7%. Fast forward to July 17th, and the inflows jumped to 50,214 BTC, roughly 49% higher than June’s numbers. If we do the math, a 2.5% to 3% dip seems likely, which would put Bitcoin somewhere in the $117,000 range.
This all lines up with a key support level at $117,293, which has held firm a few times this month. If that breaks, the next big support zone is around $113,637, according to the Fib extension indicator.
What Would Stop the Dip?
But don’t panic just yet, there’s a chance this bearish outlook won’t play out. If whale inflows start to cool off and the short-term SOPR continues to dip back toward 1.00, that could signal that profit-taking pressure is easing up. And if Bitcoin manages to reclaim its previous high of $123,203, the bulls could take charge again. So, stay on your toes. The next few days are going to be wild.
Kristian Koch
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