Bitcoin billionaire and BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes forecasts that Bitcoin will soon surge to $200,000 before eventually correcting to a new base above $124,000, citing fresh monetary policies unveiled by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
According to Hayes, the rally will coincide with the central bank’s recently introduced Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) program, which he called a modern form of money printing. In a new blog post published Friday, he drew comparisons between RMP and Quantitative Easing (QE), describing the new initiative as a powerful liquidity driver similar to previous monetary expansion measures.
“RMP is a new acronym that entered my Love Language dictionary on December 10th, the day of the most recent Fed meeting,” Hayes wrote. “Immediately, I recognized it, understood its meaning, and treasured it like my long-lost love, quantitative easing (QE). I love QE because it means money printing, and thankfully I own financial assets like gold, gold/silver mining stocks, and Bitcoin that rise faster than the pace of fiat money creation.”
Hayes sees RMP as a potential catalyst for another Bitcoin bull phase
Hayes explained that his bullish Bitcoin outlook aligns with how markets interpret RMP’s design. He expects traders to view it as equivalent to QE, which historically pushed asset prices higher.
“As the market equates RMP to QE, Bitcoin will quickly retake $124,000 and punch quickly towards $200,000,” he wrote, predicting that investor enthusiasm would peak in early 2026.
He added that when expectations about RMP’s potency reach their high point around March, Bitcoin could experience a local decline but remain well above its earlier lows.
“March will mark peak expectations for the power of the RMP to ramp asset prices, and Bitcoin will decline and form a local bottom well above $124,000 as John Williams keeps his grubby fingers firmly planted on the Brrrr button,” Hayes said.
Williams currently serves as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and as Vice Chair of the FOMC, the committee responsible for U.S. monetary policy decisions.
From $250,000 forecast to a more moderate path
Earlier this year, Hayes expected Bitcoin to approach $250,000 by year-end, largely fueled by the expansion of money supply. That prediction did not materialize, and he now sees Bitcoin trading between $80,000 and $100,000 into the end of 2025 before a stronger breakout next year.
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin recently entered a bear-phase pattern based on on-chain and market behavioral indicators. Despite near-term corrections, Hayes’ thesis implies that institutional and macro forces, particularly new forms of central bank liquidity, could reenergize long-term bullish momentum.
Inside Hayes’ argument that RMP equals money printing
In his essay, Hayes detailed why he views Reserve Management Purchases as a continuation of QE under a new label. He argued that the Fed’s purchases of short-term Treasury bills under RMP effectively increase liquidity in the same way bond-buying programs do. He also criticized policymakers for using technical language to disguise what he believes is a clear act of monetary inflation:
“The sophistry surrounding what is QE and not QE and what level of reserves are ‘ample’, allows the Fed to cash the checks of the politicians. This ain’t QE, this is Money Printer Go Fucking Brrrrr!”
Hayes contended that RMP’s structure, particularly its open-ended design under New York Fed management, enables potentially unlimited liquidity expansion. He linked this policy backdrop to rising adoption of inflation-hedging assets such as Bitcoin and gold.
Outlook for other digital assets
Beyond Bitcoin, the BitMEX founder expressed interest in Ethena’s ENA token, calling it a “TradFi vs. crypto USD rates play.” He expects ENA to benefit from expanding synthetic dollar markets and rising yield differentials between traditional and crypto-based financing.
“As the price of money falls because of Fed rate cuts, and the quantity grows because of RMP, Bitcoin rises and creates a demand for leverage supplied by synthetic dollars within the crypto capital markets,” Hayes wrote.
Bitcoin traded near $88,000 at the time of his comments, about 30% below its all-time high of $126,080. Reaching Hayes’ near-term forecast of $200,000 would require a 127% surge.
While some analysts caution that the broader crypto market faces liquidity challenges, Hayes’ argument ties Bitcoin’s next major bull run directly to Fed policy and global monetary expansion.
Anastasiia G
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