The world’s largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), has set a new all-time high of $125,750, climbing more than 13% over the past week as investors turn to digital assets amid renewed macroeconomic uncertainty. The milestone surpasses the previous record of $124,466, reached earlier this year, according to TradingView.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading around $123,839, down 0.88% over the past 24 hours, after rallying from late September lows near $109,000.
Investors pivot to Bitcoin amid fiscal gridlock and rate cut bets
Analysts attributed the move to a combination of safe‑haven demand and expectations of easier monetary policy. The ongoing U.S. government funding stalemate has fueled investor anxiety about traditional assets, prompting renewed interest in decentralized alternatives like Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin’s role as a safe haven is being amplified by the fiscal gridlock in Washington,” said Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered.
He added that the shutdown and uncertainty surrounding U.S. federal spending have “created a little more interest in decentralized assets.”
Meanwhile, speculation about forthcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts has reinforced the bullish narrative. Major banks, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs signaled that looser liquidity conditions could arrive as early as this quarter, a trend typically supportive of “hard assets” such as gold and now Bitcoin.
“Uptober” momentum returns
Bitcoin’s October surge aligns with the so‑called “Uptober” phenomenon, a term traders use for the token’s historically strong performance during the month. Over the past decade, Bitcoin’s average return in October has exceeded 21%, often setting the tone for a robust fourth quarter.
Since 2015, BTC has averaged nearly 58% gains in Q4, outperforming all other quarters, according to Coinglass data.
Liquidity indicators also supported the breakout. Analysts cited global M2 money supply growth, expanding stablecoin circulation, and gold’s multi‑month rally, which Bitcoin has tracked with roughly a 40‑day lag, as confirmation of positive momentum.
Institutional flows and quiet conviction
Compared with prior bull markets, this surge has been strikingly quiet, driven more by institutional activity than by retail exuberance.
“Quietest Bitcoin all‑time high ever. No news. No interest. No FOMO. We’re going much, much higher,” commented Vijay Boyapati on X.
Market analyst Ted (@tedtalksmacro on X) observed similar signals in BTC liquidity data: “Most of the upper liquidity zones are already taken out,” he wrote, noting a remaining cluster between $117,000 and $120,000 that could invite short‑term pullbacks.
$BTC liquidity heatmap is telling a clear story.
— Ted (@TedPillows) October 5, 2025
Most of the upside liquidity has been taken out.
A decent cluster of liquidity is sitting between $117,000 and $120,000.
Late longs are now entering, and maybe they'll get flushed.
Overall, Bitcoin structure is good with higher… pic.twitter.com/wAdOxWXc0H
Macro commentator The Wealth Coach (@wealth_coach) added perspective on adoption, writing:
“It absolutely blows my mind Bitcoin is the 7th‑largest asset in the world — and I don’t know a single person in real life who owns any or directly invests in it.”
It absolutely blows my mind Bitcoin is the 7th largest asset in the world
— TheWealthCoach (@indexnforgetit) October 3, 2025
And I don't know a single person in real life who owns any or directly invests in it... or even cares to hear about it pic.twitter.com/POsKRrzGgR
The muted online chatter contrasts with rising ETF inflows and custody demand, indicating that professional allocators may now be driving the market more than retail investors.
Analysts raise targets — but warn of volatility ahead
Economists at JPMorgan estimate that Bitcoin remains “undervalued relative to gold.” They project potential upside to around $165,000 if current “debasement trade” dynamics, where investors hedge against fiat currency risk, continue to strengthen.
Others, including Kendrick, have lifted their forecasts following the latest breakout. Some near‑term projections now range above $135,000, while more optimistic models envision a possible push to $200,000 before year‑end if liquidity and demand conditions persist.
Still, experts caution that the same macro forces driving the rally could also trigger sharp pullbacks.
“Bitcoin’s new highs show how macro‑sensitive it has become,” Kendrick said. “It’s maturing, but it’s still volatile.”
Broader outlook
The latest surge marks one of the least‑celebrated bull runs in Bitcoin’s history. Commentary on social channels has been subdued even as BTC’s market capitalization surpassed its previous peak, reinforcing the idea that retail engagement remains low.
Whether this calm will last is unclear. Market watchers are now closely tracking rate policy developments and ETF flows to gauge whether Bitcoin’s new high represents the start of a larger fourth‑quarter melt‑up or another temporary spike in an increasingly macro‑linked asset.
Oleksii Shumak
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