October 2025 has historically been a bullish month for bitcoin, but so far, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is struggling to live up to its “Uptober” reputation.
Bitcoin’s October blues break decade-long pattern
October has long been called “Uptober” by crypto traders, a nickname stemming from bitcoin’s tendency to post strong gains during the month. However, 2025’s performance has veered sharply away from that trend.
Data from CoinGlass shows bitcoin (BTC) is trading between around $107,000 and $111,500. Historically, October’s average return for BTC has been nearly 19.8%, second only to November’s 42%, making this year’s slide an unusual occurrence.
The broader crypto market mirrors bitcoin’s weakness. Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Binance Coin (BNB) have each fallen between 4% and 7% this week, while Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) plunged more than 20%.
Macro headwinds overpower seasonal optimism
Analysts attribute bitcoin’s disappointing “Uptober” to a combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures. The ongoing U.S.–China tariff standoff, weak liquidity conditions, and a wave of leveraged position washouts have weighed heavily on market sentiment.
Bitcoin’s dip below $107,000 last week triggered $1.2 billion in liquidations, primarily affecting long positions built up after September’s rebound. This sharp deleveraging erased several weeks of bullish positioning and reminded traders of the volatility that still dominates digital asset markets.
While October declines are rare, they’re not unprecedented. Over the past twelve years, bitcoin has ended October in the red only twice, in 2014 and 2018, with the latter closing at a modest 3% loss.
Bearish October hinges on key price levels
CoinGlass data shows that BTC/USD currently sits 2.3% below its monthly opening, leaving the market vulnerable to printing its first “red” October since 2018. To avoid closing lower, bitcoin must stay above key support at $107,000 and ideally reclaim the $112,000 level before month’s end.
“Historically, the bulk of Bitcoin’s October gains tend to arrive in the second half of the month,” network economist Timothy Peterson noted on X (formerly Twitter). His past research points out that “60% of Bitcoin’s full-year performance occurs after October 3,” suggesting that there is still time for a turnaround.
Bitcoin https://t.co/ZWyiyVrxGF pic.twitter.com/aT2aeCQ3z7
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 23, 2025
Looking ahead, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Oct. 29 meeting could play a pivotal role. Market watchers expect the Fed to hint at the end of its quantitative tightening program or even discuss gradual rate cuts. Either move could embolden risk assets like bitcoin and spark late-month momentum.
Smart money shifts from shorts to longs
Despite the downturn, signs are emerging that institutional and “whale” traders are positioning for a possible recovery. On-chain data from Lookonchain shows major traders closing profitable short positions.
This #BitcoinOG(1011short) has completely closed his 2,100 $BTC($227.8M) short position, making another $6.4M profit!https://t.co/S3M2wdWpCa pic.twitter.com/6Rtt1x2Fog
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) October 23, 2025
A well-known bitcoin whale referred to as “Bitcoin OG” recently shuttered his 2,100 BTC short position worth $227.8 million, netting about $6.4 million in profits. Another highly tracked trader, 0xc2a3, closed his short for an additional $826,000 gain, maintaining a perfect 12-day winning streak.
Interestingly, both traders have since entered new long positions, signaling renewed confidence in the coming weeks.
The road ahead for bitcoin and its ecosystem
Technical analysts see $112,000 as a crucial resistance-turned-support level. A clear break above that mark could confirm the start of a new uptrend, with bullish targets extending toward $150,000 by year-end, based on current projections.
Meanwhile, projects tied to the bitcoin ecosystem continue to capture investor attention. Layer-2 initiatives like Bitcoin Hyper, aimed at improving network scalability and programmability, have attracted significant whale investment, a sign that developers and investors remain optimistic about bitcoin’s long-term prospects.
For now, October may be under pressure, but history shows that bitcoin’s rallies often arrive late and fast. With two weeks left in the month and macro catalysts on the horizon, crypto traders are watching closely to see if 2025’s “Uptober” can still live up to its name.
Anastasiia G
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