Bitcoin has entered one of the harshest short-term sell-offs of the current cycle, with data showing that recent buyers are now realizing losses at historically significant levels.
The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has dropped to around 0.97, signaling that coins purchased recently are being sold below acquisition cost. Simultaneously, 65,200 BTC flowed to exchanges, confirming that panic-driven selling is translating into real losses.
The STH-MVRV ratio has fallen well below 1.0, leaving nearly all short-term holders underwater.
Historically, these conditions have often preceded cyclical recoveries, though volatility may persist as weak hands continue to exit the market.
Institutional ETFs reflect heightened risk aversion
Fear-driven selling extends to institutional channels. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded its largest single-day outflow since inception, with $523 million withdrawn in one session. The combination of retail-dominated trading and ETF outflows has exposed market fragility, particularly as futures whales reduce their activity.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju noted that spot-to-futures inflows have collapsed, ending a period when large holders posted BTC as collateral for long positions. Open interest remains above last year’s levels, but funding rates suggest complacency persists despite deteriorating conditions.
Meanwhile, the Coinbase premium has dropped to a nine-month low, reflecting sustained institutional selling pressure.
Miner activity suggests strategic positioning
Despite price declines of 21% from a recent peak of $119,771 to roughly $91,869, miner behavior points to calculated moves rather than panic. Over the past 30 days, miners sold 6,048 BTC and accumulated 6,467 BTC, with a net positive accumulation of 419 BTC as of November 17. This shift suggests miners have completed key balance sheet adjustments and are no longer a primary source of selling pressure.
Farzam Ehsani, Co-founder and CEO of VALR, considers that “a break below $92,000 would confirm the end of the rally, while a breakout above $105,000 is necessary to restore market confidence.”
Miner activity, combined with realized cap trends, shows sustained selling pressure, yet potential upside remains if key resistance levels are breached and macro conditions improve.
Market sentiment reflects extreme fear
Investor sentiment remains cautious. The Crypto Sentiment Index registered a low of 10 over the weekend, mirroring the extreme fear seen in February, while the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index sits at 15.
Analysts suggest that short-term capitulation may set the stage for a potential Santa Claus rally in December if economic data aligns favorably and institutional ETF demand remains strong, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward $111,000–$116,000 by year-end.
Kataryna Dyl
Disclaimer: All materials on this site are for informational purposes only. None of the material should be interpreted as investment advice. Please note that despite the nature of much of the material created and hosted on this website, HODL FM is not a financial reference resource and the opinions of authors and other contributors are their own and should not be taken as financial advice. If you require advice of this sort, HODL FM strongly recommends contacting a qualified industry professional.
