Bitcoin is on the move again, after what some analysts describe as “double trap” patterns, where smart money discreetly distributed billions in BTC without triggering an immediate market collapse. According to on-chain data tracked by CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin briefly tested the $123K-$124K zone in mid-2025.
The pattern has left traders questioning whether the recent peaks mark the end of the current cycle, or simply a reset before another advance.
Stealth distribution and liquidity absorption
Galaxy Digital flagged large Satoshi-era wallet movements in their July 7 2025 blockchain activity note, confirming that a Satoshi-era wallet moved more than 80,000 BTC. Despite the sheer size of the sale, the market barely flinched, a sign that liquidity and inflows were strong enough to absorb the supply. Market trader @TrueCrypto28, Mr. Anderson on X, Bitcoin’s July rally above $123,000 carried the hallmarks of institutional distribution.
By August, Bitcoin reached $124,000. But momentum quickly faded, trapping breakout buyers at the top. “The August failure was the market’s tell: breakout buyers were trapped, and the July sale wasn’t noise,” Anderson further commented in his analysis shared on X.
The two events combined have been described as a double trap: the first, masked by heavy but absorbed selling, and the second, designed to lure retail participants into fear of missing out (FOMO).
Key technical thresholds
With Bitcoin now trading near $112,500, market attention has shifted to what analysts call Critical Close Levels (CCLs). These are key price thresholds where daily or weekly closes can determine whether momentum continues or breaks down. Anderson identifies $112,581 as the first CCL to watch; a failure to defend it could pave the way for a correction toward $98,000. On the upside, reclaiming and holding above $116,891 would re-establish structural strength and reopen the path to $124,000. If these hurdles are cleared, Bitcoin could aim for $148,000 in the next growth phase, potentially setting the stage for a broader alt-season. “If you’re truly bullish, you should want Bitcoin to reassert dominance and climb through the CCLs,” Anderson noted.
4) What Bulls Should Actually Want
— Mr. Anderson (@TrueCrypto28) September 9, 2025
This isn’t cause for panic. But it is a reality check. If you’re truly bullish, you should want Bitcoin to reassert dominance and climb through the CCLs.
•Holding $112k+ consistently → restores structural strength.
•Closing $112,581 and…
Cycle risk or reset?
Historical parallels reinforce this setup. In 2017 and again in mid-2021, Bitcoin rallies ended in similar “trap” formations where fresh highs quickly reversed, leaving retail investors exposed. In both cases, distribution occurred quietly while enthusiasm ran high, a reminder that liquidity conditions often matter more than headlines. What makes 2025 unique is the institutional backdrop: ETF inflows, miner liquidations, and macro liquidity shifts all intersect with these technical levels. Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle has defined market rhythms. However, as institutional players increasingly affect liquidity, price action is becoming more nuanced. The recent double trap underlines how professional traders exploit liquidity conditions to offload risk without triggering panic, a theme that has surfaced repeatedly in past bull markets.
At the same time, the broader market environment remains fragile. Hash rate growth and miner activity continue to support network strength, yet rising distribution from long-term holders shows that capital is shifting hands. Whether this marks the end of the current cycle or a pause before the next leg higher will depend on Bitcoin’s ability to defend structural support.
Perspectives
For traders, the key takeaway is less about predicting the exact cycle turn and more about managing exposure. Episodes like July and August highlight how liquidity events can mask deeper distribution trends. As Edwards of Capriole Investments previously noted in a related context, miner and whale outflows sometimes precede bullish reversals when absorbed by institutional buyers, but the timing remains uncertain. Risk management, not just price targets, should guide investor decisions. With volatility high and liquidity often strategically managed, positioning around clear support and resistance levels remains essential.
At press time, Bitcoin trades at $112,540, down 0.4% in the past 24 hours.
Roman Zaika
Disclaimer: All materials on this site are for informational purposes only. None of the material should be interpreted as investment advice. Please note that despite the nature of much of the material created and hosted on this website, HODL FM is not a financial reference resource, and the opinions of authors and other contributors are their own and should not be taken as financial advice. If you require advice. HODL FM strongly recommends contacting a qualified industry professional.
