Bitcoin’s steady rise at the start of 2026 has propelled the world’s largest cryptocurrency to its highest level in six weeks. According to CoinGecko data, bitcoin reached a high of $94,420 on Monday, which represents a 7.7% increase from its opening price of $87,611 at the beginning of the year. The move coincided with the largest daily inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs since early October and accumulating activity from whales signaling renewed institutional and long-term investor confidence.
ETF inflows support early-year rally
Data from SoSoValue showed that spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $697.25 million in net inflows on Monday. This followed Friday’s $471.14 million of net inflows, lifting the two-day total to $1.16 billion. Nine of the 12 listed bitcoin ETFs saw positive inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $372.47 million, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $191.2 million.
Funds from Grayscale, Bitwise, Ark & 21Shares, VanEck, Invesco, Franklin Templeton, and Valkyrie also posted net inflows. Spot Ethereum ETFs added $168.13 million, while altcoin ETFs tracking XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, and Chainlink also received capital.
Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, said:
“Sizable inflows into ETFs signal renewed risk appetite and confidence in regulated crypto exposure as the new year begins.”
He said the continued strength in ETF activity points to improving market sentiment and could support sustained price gains through 2026 if institutional demand and regulatory conditions remain positive.
BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas shared a similar outlook, emphasizing that ETF flows remain a barometer for sentiment.
“Spot ETF flows are a bellwether of sentiment, they suggest cautious optimism from major asset allocators, positioning for risk assets amid what is still a nervy macro environment,” Lucas said.
Options and futures show shifting positioning
Despite bitcoin’s strong price performance, perpetual futures positioning remains relatively restrained. CryptoQuant data showed that aggregated open interest stands at $31.4 billion, about 34% lower than the October peak of $47.8 billion. This signals that, while new positions are contributing to the rally, leverage in the market is not overheating.
CoinGlass data indicated that the order book remains ask-skewed at 5% and 10% depth, implying seller presence near the upper ranges. The Coinbase Premium Index remains slightly negative, reflecting weak spot demand among U.S. investors.
Meanwhile, the options market has turned more constructive. Deribit data showed that the 7-day 25-delta skew recently moved positive. QCP Capital highlighted this development in a Monday note:
“On the options front, positioning has turned increasingly constructive with a reduction in put skew across all tenors and with more than 3,000 contracts of 30 Jan 2026 $100,000 calls purchased since last week.”
QCP analysts, however, cautioned that much of the activity came from traders seeking volatility exposure rather than purely directional bullish bets. That observation aligns with Lucas’s recommendation that traders remain alert to potential reversals.
“For now, the bid feels earned, but any break above $95,000 needs volume; if it's thin, expect profit taking before the next leg,” she told.
Whale accumulation signals possible extension of rally
Onchain analytics platform Santiment noted that bitcoin whales and sharks, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC, have accumulated 56,227 BTC since mid-December. Santiment said this accumulation marked a local market bottom and predicted that “we have a higher probability than usual to continue to see market cap growth throughout crypto.”
📊 Crypto markets typically follow the path of key whale & shark stakeholders, and move the opposite direction of small retail wallets. In our chart below:
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) January 5, 2026
🟥 Whales dumping, Retail accumulating (VERY BEARISH)
🟧 Whales dumping, Retail unpredictable (BEARISH)
🟨 Whales & Retail… pic.twitter.com/yoC0H1keBT
Retail traders, in contrast, have taken profits, assuming the market may be in a “bull trap.” Historically, whale accumulation combined with retail selling has preceded sustained uptrends.
Bitrue Research Lead Andri Fauzan Adziima said that bitcoin “remains in a bullish consolidation phase.” Adziima said immediate resistance lies between $95,000 and $100,000, with high call option interest near the $100,000 strike for January expiries. Support sits in the $88,000 to $90,000 range, providing an important technical floor if the rally stalls.
While analysts remain cautiously optimistic, many agree that ETF inflows and whale accumulation have established a supportive backdrop for bitcoin’s next move. The key question now is whether bulls can maintain momentum above $95,000 or face renewed selling pressure before the next potential leg higher.
Conflict of interest disclosure
The publication and its writers do not hold any positions in bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies mentioned in this article at the time of writing. This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations.
Gunel Ismayilova
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