Bitcoin holders certainly have the time of their lives right now. The token has seen unbelievable gains for the past few weeks, driving it to a new all-time high even though it didn’t have a rosy start this year. Following the recent impressive run Bitcoin has seen, many have predicted that the coin will rise to a 100,000 valuation before the year runs out. However, others are skeptical, claiming that not all that glitters is gold, and Bitcoin’s price could even be heading down. 

The trending and dominant market sentiment is that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 by the end of 2024. In fact, according to Nick Forster, founder of Defi protocol, the probability of that happening has jumped to 45% from last week’s 34%. There’s also a 4% probability of the coin surpassing $150,000.

However, despite the market’s strong sentiment, Bitcoin is now trading below $94,000, and according to Standard Chartered Bank, the British multinational bank, it could dip even further. 

The bank’s digital assets researcher, Geoff Kendrick, also revealed on Tuesday that Bitcoin’s near future may not be as rosy as people expect. He mentioned that the asset may drop to $88,700, and according to him, the major reason why that may be is the announcement of the new Treasury Secretary. 

Kendrick believes the catalyst for Bitcoin’s price decline within the past 24 hours is the announcement of Bessent as the new Treasury head. Bessent is largely considered a fiscal conservative, an attribute that many believe would cause him to implement more sensible monetary policies, especially on tariffs. While Trump’s administration is expected to be largely pro-crypto, many fear Bessent will tame some of Trump’s policies. 

Bitcoin’s head of growth, Joe Consorti, is even more bearish on Bitcoin’s future than Kendrick. The analyst believes that Bitcoin could even head deeper into $70,000 territory if its moves stay tied to the M2 money supply.

According to Consorti, Bitcoin has been tracking the global M2—an estimate of cash and short-term bank deposits—with only about a “70-day lag” since September 2023. The M2 money supply has long been associated with previous Bitcoin bull runs, often increasing alongside Bitcoin’s price.

However, despite this long-standing connection between the M2 and Bitcoin, many other analysts do not see Consorti’s point. 

David Quintieri, a market commentator and analyst, stated that “Bitcoin is too volatile to track it against anything.” Crypto commentator Sam KB seemingly agreed with Consorti when he wrote in an X post, “Every time M2 hits a high, so does BTC.” However, he continued, “apart from this cycle,” effectively disagreeing with Consorti. 

With all the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin, CryptoQuant CEO and founder Ki Young Ju advised traders to manage their risk and avoid panic selling at local bottoms.

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